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Effects of News on Social and Economic Conditions, Issues, Conflicts and the Horse Race: an 8-wave Panel Study
Unformatted Document Text:  8 Figure 1: Media attention for the major parties during the months preceding the 2003 elections In the first weeks after the resignation, we see a fluctuating pattern with attention peaks for different parties. In week 44 the peaks for the VVD and for the PvdA are caused bythe fact that Somalian born Hirsi Ali, a young female politician with a high media profilebased on her aversion of Islam fundamentalists, shifted from the PvdA to the VVD, whooffered her a safe seat in Parliament. D66 is hitting the news in week 44 with a proposal onthe new memberships of the EU. This is the only significant news moment for D66 until theend of 2002 (and almost until the end of the campaign). In week 45 the election of Wouter Bos as party leader of the PvdA dominates the news. From that moment on until the end of 2002, the PvdA disappears more or less from thepolitical arena. The three coalition parties dominate the news instead. Not always in a positive way, though. The peaks in attention for the LPF are caused by controversial statements of LPFminister Nawijn on the issue of death penalty. Nawijn’s position remains controversial and inweek 49 he has to withdraw his candidature as a party leader. Mat Herben, who led the party afew months after the 2002 elections makes his come back. In week 50 there is a smaller peak in attention for the VVD, because VVD minister Korthals resigns as a late consequence of the Srebrenica drama. In week 51 the committee Van de Haak presents its findings on the safeguarding of Pim Fortuyn by the former objects of his ridicule, the ministers of the purple cabinet. Most ofthe news that is generated by this event cemters around the LPF. In week 52 there is hardlyany political news. All politicians as well as the rest of the country are celebrating theChristmas holiday. In figure 1 we see a clear swift in the first week of January 2003. The first television news debate is held on Friday the 3 rd on RTL News. According to the news, the first debate was won by Wouter Bos, the party leader of the PvdA. From that moment on, Wouter Bos isportrayed as a winner (and Gerrit Zalm from the VVD more or less as a loser). This ‘fact’again creates more news for the PvdA. All of a sudden the PvdA is a potential candidate to Period: Oct 16th 2002 - Jan 22nd 2003 WEEK 2003/04 03/03 03/02 03/01 02/52 02/51 02/50 02/49 02/48 02/47 02/46 02/45 02/44 02/43 2002/42 M e d ia a tte n tio n 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 PvdA CDA VVD D66 LPF Period: Oct 16th 2002 - Jan 22nd 2003 WEEK 2003/04 03/03 03/02 03/01 02/52 02/51 02/50 02/49 02/48 02/47 02/46 02/45 02/44 02/43 2002/42 M e d ia a tte n tio n 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 PvdA CDA VVD D66 LPF

Authors: Kleinnijenhuis, Jan., Hoof van, Anita., Oegema, Dirk. and De Ridder, J..
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8
Figure 1: Media attention for the major parties during the months preceding the 2003 elections
In the first weeks after the resignation, we see a fluctuating pattern with attention
peaks for different parties. In week 44 the peaks for the VVD and for the PvdA are caused by
the fact that Somalian born Hirsi Ali, a young female politician with a high media profile
based on her aversion of Islam fundamentalists, shifted from the PvdA to the VVD, who
offered her a safe seat in Parliament. D66 is hitting the news in week 44 with a proposal on
the new memberships of the EU. This is the only significant news moment for D66 until the
end of 2002 (and almost until the end of the campaign).
In week 45 the election of Wouter Bos as party leader of the PvdA dominates the
news. From that moment on until the end of 2002, the PvdA disappears more or less from the
political arena.
The three coalition parties dominate the news instead. Not always in a positive way,
though. The peaks in attention for the LPF are caused by controversial statements of LPF
minister Nawijn on the issue of death penalty. Nawijn’s position remains controversial and in
week 49 he has to withdraw his candidature as a party leader. Mat Herben, who led the party a
few months after the 2002 elections makes his come back.
In week 50 there is a smaller peak in attention for the VVD, because VVD minister
Korthals resigns as a late consequence of the Srebrenica drama.
In week 51 the committee Van de Haak presents its findings on the safeguarding of
Pim Fortuyn by the former objects of his ridicule, the ministers of the purple cabinet. Most of
the news that is generated by this event cemters around the LPF. In week 52 there is hardly
any political news. All politicians as well as the rest of the country are celebrating the
Christmas holiday.
In figure 1 we see a clear swift in the first week of January 2003. The first television
news debate is held on Friday the 3
rd
on RTL News. According to the news, the first debate
was won by Wouter Bos, the party leader of the PvdA. From that moment on, Wouter Bos is
portrayed as a winner (and Gerrit Zalm from the VVD more or less as a loser). This ‘fact’
again creates more news for the PvdA. All of a sudden the PvdA is a potential candidate to
Period: Oct 16th 2002 - Jan 22nd 2003
WEEK
2003/04
03/03
03/02
03/01
02/52
02/51
02/50
02/49
02/48
02/47
02/46
02/45
02/44
02/43
2002/42
M
e
d
i
a
a
t
t
e
n
t
i
o
n
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
PvdA
CDA
VVD
D66
LPF
Period: Oct 16th 2002 - Jan 22nd 2003
WEEK
2003/04
03/03
03/02
03/01
02/52
02/51
02/50
02/49
02/48
02/47
02/46
02/45
02/44
02/43
2002/42
M
e
d
i
a
a
t
t
e
n
t
i
o
n
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
PvdA
CDA
VVD
D66
LPF


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