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Overlapping Decisions in a Presidential Campaign: Battleground Wisconsin in 2004 |
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Abstract:
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Beyond such factors as partisan identification and special issue positions, elections involving an incumbent are in part referenda in which many ask themselves whether or not the incumbent has done a good enough job to warrant returning him or her to office. If the answer is “yes”, there is little or no need for many to consider the qualifications of a challenger. But if the answer is “no”, this creates an opening for, but no guarantee of support for, those seeking to replace him or her. Polling conducted by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center as part of its ongoing Badger Poll series demonstrates clearly how these two strands can move separately from one another. In particular, data from a half dozen surveys during 2004 illustrate how the key issue of Iraq and terror posed special difficulties for the challenger, since his natural constituency was divided on a number of facets of this debate in ways in which the President’s was not, and also underscore the importance of the challenger’s presenting a clear image of what he or she would do in justaposition with the incumbent’s actual record. In the end, while Wisconsinites had strong doubts about the performance of George W. Bush in a variety of areas, John Kerry was never able to convince many voters that he would be a clear, acceptable alternative, and the data make clear the extent of skepticism about campaign messages which further made it harder for this case to be put. The end result was the second straight election in which Wisconsin was up for grabs up to the last minute, ultimately remaining a “blue state” by an extremely small margin. The paper also examines key groups within the electorate and traces their positions during the campaign. |
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Association:
Name: American Association For Public Opinion Association URL: http://www.aapor.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Ferree Jr, G Donald. "Overlapping Decisions in a Presidential Campaign: Battleground Wisconsin in 2004" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Association For Public Opinion Association, Fontainebleau Resort, Miami Beach, FL, <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p17225_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Ferree Jr, G. "Overlapping Decisions in a Presidential Campaign: Battleground Wisconsin in 2004" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Association For Public Opinion Association, Fontainebleau Resort, Miami Beach, FL <Not Available>. 2009-05-25 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p17225_index.html |
Publication Type: Paper/Poster Proposal Abstract: Beyond such factors as partisan identification and special issue positions, elections involving an incumbent are in part referenda in which many ask themselves whether or not the incumbent has done a good enough job to warrant returning him or her to office. If the answer is “yes”, there is little or no need for many to consider the qualifications of a challenger. But if the answer is “no”, this creates an opening for, but no guarantee of support for, those seeking to replace him or her. Polling conducted by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center as part of its ongoing Badger Poll series demonstrates clearly how these two strands can move separately from one another. In particular, data from a half dozen surveys during 2004 illustrate how the key issue of Iraq and terror posed special difficulties for the challenger, since his natural constituency was divided on a number of facets of this debate in ways in which the President’s was not, and also underscore the importance of the challenger’s presenting a clear image of what he or she would do in justaposition with the incumbent’s actual record. In the end, while Wisconsinites had strong doubts about the performance of George W. Bush in a variety of areas, John Kerry was never able to convince many voters that he would be a clear, acceptable alternative, and the data make clear the extent of skepticism about campaign messages which further made it harder for this case to be put. The end result was the second straight election in which Wisconsin was up for grabs up to the last minute, ultimately remaining a “blue state” by an extremely small margin. The paper also examines key groups within the electorate and traces their positions during the campaign. |
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