Author's Keywords: adaptive behavior, voting, voting behavior, retrospective voting	Convention All Academic Convention makes running your annual conference simple and cost effective. It is your online solution for abstract management, peer review, and scheduling for your annual meeting or convention. Submission - Custom fields, multiple submission types, tracks, audio visual, multiple upload formats, automatic conversion to pdf. Review - Peer Review, Bulk reviewer assignment, bulk emails, ranking, z-score statistics, and multiple worksheets! Reports - Many standard and custom reports generated while you wait. Print programs with participant indexes, event grids, and more! Scheduling - Flexible and convenient grid scheduling within rooms and buildings. Conflict checking and advanced filtering. Communication - Bulk email tools to help your administrators send reminders and responses. Use form letters, a message center, and much more! Management - Search tools, duplicate people management, editing tools, submission transfers, many tools to manage a variety of conference management headaches! Click here for more information.
Association: Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40005_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Bendor, Jonathan., Kumar, Sunil. and Siegel, David. "V. O. Key Formalized: Retrospective Voting as an Adaptive Process" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2011-03-14 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40005_index.html>

Bendor, J. , Kumar, S. and Siegel, D. A. , 2005-09-01 "V. O. Key Formalized: Retrospective Voting as an Adaptive Process" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-03-14 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40005_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: Since V. O. Key’s seminal work, retrospective voting been regarded as a major component of voting theory, spawning a rich variety of models of voter choice utilizing Key’s basic idea that the incumbent’s performance influences citizens’ votes. However, these models often assume that voters are fully rational and, for example, update their beliefs in accord with Bayes’ rule. We suspect that Key had a less heroic view of voter cognition, and we propose a formalization of his verbal theory that we believe is closer to the spirit of his ideas. Our model is based on two fundamental axioms of aspiration-based retrospective voting: if an incumbent performed “well” (i.e., above voter A’s aspiration level) then A’s propensity to vote for the incumbent will rise; if an incumbent performed “poorly” (below A’s aspiration level) then A’s propensity to vote for the incumbent falls. These two assumptions, together with some postulates about how aspirations adjust, form the core of our model. We show analytically that citizens endogenously develop partisan voting tendencies, even though they lack overt political ideologies and instead simply vote retrospectively in the above manner. Further, this result is robust against perceptual errors (citizens evaluating an incumbent’s performance incorrectly), given the conventional benchmark assumptions of independent and identically distributed errors. Lastly, we supplement this analytical model, which is spare in several respects, with a computational model that enables us to examine richer voting contexts.

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