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A Formal Model of Learning and Policy Diffusion
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A Formal Model of Learning and Policy Diffusion
∗
Craig Volden
Department of Political Science
The Ohio State University
Michael M. Ting
Department of Political Science and SIPA
Columbia University
Daniel P. Carpenter
Department of Government
Harvard University
August 23, 2005
Abstract
We present a model of learning and policy choice across governments. The model
allows choice among multiple policies by n players over two periods. Players and poli-cies are located in a unidimensional space and policies have unknown benefits prior toadoption. We characterize policy choice over time in two cases: first, when players can-not learn from one another; and, second, when players can learn from the past resultsof other governments. Thus the model can distinguish between diffusion by learningand independent adoptions by multiple governments. Among the findings are thatlearning from others causes policy experimentation to decrease due to informationalfree-riding, but adoption of beneficial policies to increase. Moderate governments aremost likely to free-ride off others’ experiments, and to abandon apparently unsuccess-ful experiments. Further, learning-based diffusion can be differentiated from similarbut uncoordinated policy adoptions by discontinuities in the characteristics of the finaladopters, by the emulation of the successes of other governments, and by the patternsof early experimenters vis-a-vis late adopters.
∗
Preliminary; please do not cite without authors’ permission. Prepared for presentation at the 2005
American Political Science Association meetings, Washington, D.C. Please send questions or comments toCraig Volden, 2147 Derby Hall, 154 N. Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1373 (volden.## email not listed ##).
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| | Authors: Volden, Craig., Ting, Michael. and Carpenter, Daniel. |
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A Formal Model of Learning and Policy Diffusion
∗
Craig Volden
Department of Political Science
The Ohio State University
Michael M. Ting
Department of Political Science and SIPA
Columbia University
Daniel P. Carpenter
Department of Government
Harvard University
August 23, 2005
Abstract
We present a model of learning and policy choice across governments. The model
allows choice among multiple policies by n players over two periods. Players and poli-
cies are located in a unidimensional space and policies have unknown benefits prior to
adoption. We characterize policy choice over time in two cases: first, when players can-
not learn from one another; and, second, when players can learn from the past results
of other governments. Thus the model can distinguish between diffusion by learning
and independent adoptions by multiple governments. Among the findings are that
learning from others causes policy experimentation to decrease due to informational
free-riding, but adoption of beneficial policies to increase. Moderate governments are
most likely to free-ride off others’ experiments, and to abandon apparently unsuccess-
ful experiments. Further, learning-based diffusion can be differentiated from similar
but uncoordinated policy adoptions by discontinuities in the characteristics of the final
adopters, by the emulation of the successes of other governments, and by the patterns
of early experimenters vis-a-vis late adopters.
∗
Preliminary; please do not cite without authors’ permission. Prepared for presentation at the 2005
American Political Science Association meetings, Washington, D.C. Please send questions or comments to
Craig Volden, 2147 Derby Hall, 154 N. Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1373 (volden.## email not listed ##).
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