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A Formal Model of Learning and Policy Diffusion
Unformatted Document Text:  1 − ρ 3 1 − (1 − π 3 ) k 3 +1 ρ 1 1 − (1 − π 1 ) k 1 (u(|z j − x 1 |) + π 1 ω 1 ) + 1 − ρ 3 1 − (1 − π 3 ) k 3 +1 1 − ρ 1 1 − (1 − π 1 ) k 1 u(|z j − x 2 |) > δ ρ 3 1 − (1 − π 3 ) k 3 (u(|z j − x 3 |) + π 3 ω 3 ) + 1 − ρ 3 1 − (1 − π 3 ) k 3 ρ 1 1 − (1 − π 1 ) k 1 (u(|z j − x 1 |) + π 1 ω 1 ) + 1 − ρ 3 1 − (1 − π 3 ) k 3 1 − ρ 1 1 − (1 − π 1 ) k 1 u(|z j − x 2 |) . (29) Simplifying yields: 1 − ρ 1 (1 − (1 − π 1 ) k 1 ) u(|z j − x 2 |) < [u(|z j − x 3 |) + π 3 ω 3 ] − ρ 1 (1 − (1 − π 1 ) k 1 ) [u(|z j − x 1 |) + π 1 ω 1 ] (30) Because c 13 ≤ e k 3 23 , we can substitute in the utilities for an effective policy 1 instead of an effective policy 3 into (30), yielding: 1 − ρ 1 (1 − (1 − π 1 ) k 1 ) u(|z j − x 2 |) < 1 − ρ 1 (1 − (1 − π 1 ) k 1 ) [u(|z j − x 1 |) + π 1 ω 1 ] (31) By the fact that e k 3 23 < c 12 , u(|z j − x 1 |) + π 1 ω 1 > u(|z j − x 2 |). Therefore, (31) holds for all k 3 . Proof of Proposition 2. The second-period strategies are trivial to derive based on the ideal point location z j , the c ik (h) cutpoints, and the information revealed from the first- period experiments. Given the symmetric nature of this case, it is sufficient to establish the results for the first-period choice between policies 2 and 3. Given Lemma 1 and c 12 ≤ e k 3 23 , the second-period strategy on both sides of e k 3 23 is to select policy 3 iff ω 1 3 = ω 3 and otherwise to adopt policy 2. Thus, policy 3 will be chosen in the first period if (22) holds. The cutpoint e k 3 23 is thus defined by (17). This is a unique solution, in that the left-hand side of (17) is decreasing in e k 3 23 while the right-hand side is constant in e k 3 23 . S j experiments with policy 3 if and only if z j > e k 3 23 . Invoking symmetry and defining the experimentation cutpoint e k 1 12 analogously to the derivation of (17) completes the experimental strategies for Proposition 2. Proof of Proposition 3. The second-period strategies are trivial to derive based on the ideal point location z j , the c ik (h) cutpoints, and the information revealed from the first- period experiments. Given the symmetric nature of this case, it is sufficient to establish the results for the first-period choice between policies 2 and 3. Given Lemma 1 and c 13 < e k 3 23 < c 12 , the second-period strategy on both sides of e k 3 23 is to select policy 3 iff ω 1 3 = ω 3 , otherwise to select policy 1 iff ω 1 1 = ω 1 , and otherwise to adopt 29

Authors: Volden, Craig., Ting, Michael. and Carpenter, Daniel.
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background image
1 − ρ
3
1 − (1 − π
3
)
k
3
+1
ρ
1
1 − (1 − π
1
)
k
1
(u(|z
j
− x
1
|) + π
1
ω
1
) +
1 − ρ
3
1 − (1 − π
3
)
k
3
+1
1 − ρ
1
1 − (1 − π
1
)
k
1
u(|z
j
− x
2
|) >
δ ρ
3
1 − (1 − π
3
)
k
3
(u(|z
j
− x
3
|) + π
3
ω
3
) +
1 − ρ
3
1 − (1 − π
3
)
k
3
ρ
1
1 − (1 − π
1
)
k
1
(u(|z
j
− x
1
|) + π
1
ω
1
) +
1 − ρ
3
1 − (1 − π
3
)
k
3
1 − ρ
1
1 − (1 − π
1
)
k
1
u(|z
j
− x
2
|) .
(29)
Simplifying yields:
1 − ρ
1
(1 − (1 − π
1
)
k
1
) u(|z
j
− x
2
|) <
[u(|z
j
− x
3
|) + π
3
ω
3
] − ρ
1
(1 − (1 − π
1
)
k
1
) [u(|z
j
− x
1
|) + π
1
ω
1
]
(30)
Because c
13
≤ e
k
3
23
, we can substitute in the utilities for an effective policy 1 instead of an
effective policy 3 into (30), yielding:
1 − ρ
1
(1 − (1 − π
1
)
k
1
) u(|z
j
− x
2
|) < 1 − ρ
1
(1 − (1 − π
1
)
k
1
) [u(|z
j
− x
1
|) + π
1
ω
1
]
(31)
By the fact that e
k
3
23
< c
12
, u(|z
j
− x
1
|) + π
1
ω
1
> u(|z
j
− x
2
|). Therefore, (31) holds for
all k
3
.
Proof of Proposition 2. The second-period strategies are trivial to derive based on the
ideal point location z
j
, the c
ik
(h) cutpoints, and the information revealed from the first-
period experiments. Given the symmetric nature of this case, it is sufficient to establish the
results for the first-period choice between policies 2 and 3.
Given Lemma 1 and c
12
≤ e
k
3
23
, the second-period strategy on both sides of e
k
3
23
is to
select policy 3 iff ω
1
3
= ω
3
and otherwise to adopt policy 2. Thus, policy 3 will be chosen
in the first period if (22) holds. The cutpoint e
k
3
23
is thus defined by (17). This is a unique
solution, in that the left-hand side of (17) is decreasing in e
k
3
23
while the right-hand side is
constant in e
k
3
23
. S
j
experiments with policy 3 if and only if z
j
> e
k
3
23
. Invoking symmetry and
defining the experimentation cutpoint e
k
1
12
analogously to the derivation of (17) completes
the experimental strategies for Proposition 2.
Proof of Proposition 3. The second-period strategies are trivial to derive based on the
ideal point location z
j
, the c
ik
(h) cutpoints, and the information revealed from the first-
period experiments. Given the symmetric nature of this case, it is sufficient to establish the
results for the first-period choice between policies 2 and 3.
Given Lemma 1 and c
13
< e
k
3
23
< c
12
, the second-period strategy on both sides of e
k
3
23
is to
select policy 3 iff ω
1
3
= ω
3
, otherwise to select policy 1 iff ω
1
1
= ω
1
, and otherwise to adopt
29


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