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Neighborhoods and Tips: Implications of Spatiality for Political Cascades
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Neighborhoods and Tips: Implications of
Spatiality for Political Cascades
Ian S. Lustick
University of Pennsylvania
Dan Miodownik
University of Pennsylvania
Abstract
The dynamics of political cascades and the role of tipping points can often be of
central importance for policy makers and for those seeking to interpret or anticipate patterns of political change. While research on political cascades has established their possibility under particular conditions of decision interdependence, little is known about the circumstances the make “tipping” more or less likely. For example, the size of the local group that individuals monitor before making decisions about behavior that could inhibit or contribute to a political cascade has been recognized as an important valuable, but never systematically studied.
In this paper we consider some of the most prominent efforts in comparative
politics to account for patterns of political cascades and of tipping including examination of three overlapping formal approaches: modified closed form solutions, small worlds networks, and agent-based modeling. These approaches make some but only limited progress toward understanding implications of the “zone of knowledge” of individuals (what we refer to as “spatiality”). We then describe the purpose and results of simulation experiments we conducted using the PS-I agent-based simulation platform in an effort to begin a systematic study into the implications of spatiality to political cascades.
Our analysis suggests that under no condition of spatiality are tips inevitable, that
a minimum size zone of knowledge is required if tips are to be observed, that within a particular range increasing cascading behavior and tips are likely with increases in the size of local zones of knowledge, and that models based on universal knowledge or surrogates for it are likely to over-predict cascades and tipping.
The authors wish to thank Robert Axelrod, Robert Axtell, Roy Eidelson, David Laitin, Robin Pemantle, Karen Remmer, Meredith Rolfe, and colleagues at Brookings and in the Laboratory in Comparative Ethnic Processes for their suggestions and helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper. The authors are particularly grateful for the assistance of Kaija Schilde in the research supporting this paper. Support for this research was received from the National Science Foundation, Grant No. # 0218397, and from the Solomon Asch Center for Study of Ethnopolitical Conflict
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| | Authors: Lustick, Ian. and Miodownik, Dan. |
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Neighborhoods and Tips: Implications of
Spatiality for Political Cascades
Ian S. Lustick
University of Pennsylvania
Dan Miodownik
University of Pennsylvania
Abstract
The dynamics of political cascades and the role of tipping points can often be of
central importance for policy makers and for those seeking to interpret or anticipate
patterns of political change. While research on political cascades has established their
possibility under particular conditions of decision interdependence, little is known about
the circumstances the make “tipping” more or less likely. For example, the size of the
local group that individuals monitor before making decisions about behavior that could
inhibit or contribute to a political cascade has been recognized as an important valuable,
but never systematically studied.
In this paper we consider some of the most prominent efforts in comparative
politics to account for patterns of political cascades and of tipping including examination
of three overlapping formal approaches: modified closed form solutions, small worlds
networks, and agent-based modeling. These approaches make some but only limited
progress toward understanding implications of the “zone of knowledge” of individuals
(what we refer to as “spatiality”). We then describe the purpose and results of simulation
experiments we conducted using the PS-I agent-based simulation platform in an effort to
begin a systematic study into the implications of spatiality to political cascades.
Our analysis suggests that under no condition of spatiality are tips inevitable, that
a minimum size zone of knowledge is required if tips are to be observed, that within a
particular range increasing cascading behavior and tips are likely with increases in the
size of local zones of knowledge, and that models based on universal knowledge or
surrogates for it are likely to over-predict cascades and tipping.
The authors wish to thank Robert Axelrod, Robert Axtell, Roy Eidelson,
David Laitin, Robin Pemantle, Karen Remmer, Meredith Rolfe, and colleagues at
Brookings and in the Laboratory in Comparative Ethnic Processes for their suggestions
and helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper. The authors are particularly
grateful for the assistance of Kaija Schilde in the research supporting this paper. Support
for this research was received from the National Science Foundation, Grant No. #
0218397, and from the Solomon Asch Center for Study of Ethnopolitical Conflict
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