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Unstable Politics: Fiscal Space and Electoral Volatility in the Indian States

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Abstract:

The national Indian party
system, after decades of relatively stable one-party party system
dominance by the Congress party, has fragmented considerably since
the 1990s. At the state level, however, electoral volatility has
not increased since the 1990s. In fact, electoral politics in the
Indian states have always been characterized by a high degree of
electoral volatility, though there remains important variation
across states in the extent of volatility experienced. We
attribute this volatility to the extent of fiscal space possessed
by a state government. Where a government's budget has fiscal
space, citizens reward the incumbent parties with their votes at
the next elections. However, when fiscal space is constrained,
either for exogenous reasons such as economic crises or endogenous
reasons such as excessive expenditures or low tax revenues, the
ability of the incumbent government to provide such resources is
drastically reduced. Citizens therefore have little reason to
reward the incumbent government at the polls, and are `available'
to opposition politicians and to alternative appeals.
Vote-switching ensues and the incumbent government is voted out of
the office.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

parti (158), volatil (151), state (131), elector (130), vote (70), elect (69), system (66), incumb (62), polit (62), indian (55), govern (54), voter (52), level (50), space (43), scal (39), econom (39), chang (38), cleavag (36), 1 (36), e (36), ect (32),

Author's Keywords:

India, parties, volatility, public services
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association
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http://www.apsanet.org


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MLA Citation:

Nooruddin, Irfan. "Unstable Politics: Fiscal Space and Electoral Volatility in the Indian States" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2011-03-14 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40103_index.html>

APA Citation:

Nooruddin, I. , 2005-09-01 "Unstable Politics: Fiscal Space and Electoral Volatility in the Indian States" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <APPLICATION/DOWNLOAD>. 2011-03-14 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40103_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: The national Indian party
system, after decades of relatively stable one-party party system
dominance by the Congress party, has fragmented considerably since
the 1990s. At the state level, however, electoral volatility has
not increased since the 1990s. In fact, electoral politics in the
Indian states have always been characterized by a high degree of
electoral volatility, though there remains important variation
across states in the extent of volatility experienced. We
attribute this volatility to the extent of fiscal space possessed
by a state government. Where a government's budget has fiscal
space, citizens reward the incumbent parties with their votes at
the next elections. However, when fiscal space is constrained,
either for exogenous reasons such as economic crises or endogenous
reasons such as excessive expenditures or low tax revenues, the
ability of the incumbent government to provide such resources is
drastically reduced. Citizens therefore have little reason to
reward the incumbent government at the polls, and are `available'
to opposition politicians and to alternative appeals.
Vote-switching ensues and the incumbent government is voted out of
the office.

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Associated Document Available American Political Science Association
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: application/download
Page count: 21
Word count: 9193
Text sample:
Unstable Politics: Electoral Volatility in the Indian States Irfan Nooruddin∗ Pradeep Chhibber† August 19 2005‡ Abstract: The national Indian party system after decades of relatively stable one-party party system dominance by the Congress party has fragmented considerably since the 1990s. At the state level however electoral volatility has not increased since the 1990s. In fact electoral politics in the Indian states have always been characterized by a high degree of electoral volatility though there remains important variation across states
1985 1989 1991 1993 1996 2002 West Bengal WB 1967 1969 1971 1972 1977 1982 1987 1991 1996 2001 Summary Statistics Variable N Mean Std. Dev Min Max Electoral Volatility 123 25.52 15.19 3.15 67 Incumbent Vote Change 123 -8.17 14.22 -45.1 19.8 Change in Turnout 123 0.37 9.62 -44.6 46.5 Effective Parties (Votes) 138 4.04 1.18 2.46 8.40 Effective Clusters 153 1.99 0.33 1.23 2.59 Cleavage Polarization 153 30.01 10.13 17.39 56.07 Fiscal Space (%) 128 76.75 7.89


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