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Unstable Politics: Fiscal Space and Electoral Volatility in the Indian States
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Unstable Politics:
Electoral Volatility in the Indian States
Irfan Nooruddin
∗
Pradeep Chhibber
†
August 19, 2005
‡
Abstract:
The national Indian party system, after decades of relatively stable one-party party
system dominance by the Congress party, has fragmented considerably since the 1990s. At thestate level, however, electoral volatility has not increased since the 1990s. In fact, electoral politicsin the Indian states have always been characterized by a high degree of electoral volatility, thoughthere remains important variation across states in the extent of volatility experienced. We attributethis volatility to the extent of fiscal space possessed by a state government. Where a government’sbudget has fiscal space, citizens reward the incumbent parties with their votes at the next elections.However, when fiscal space is constrained, either for exogenous reasons such as economic crises orendogenous reasons such as excessive expenditures or low tax revenues, the ability of the incumbentgovernment to provide such resources is drastically reduced. Citizens therefore have little reasonto reward the incumbent government at the polls, and are ‘available’ to opposition politicians andto alternative appeals. Vote-switching ensues and the incumbent government is voted out of theoffice.
∗
Corresponding Author: Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University,
nooruddin.## email not listed ##
†
Professor,
Department
of
Political
Science,
University
of
California,
Berkeley,
## email not listed ##
‡
Paper prepared for presentation at the 2005 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Associ-
ation, Washington, DC, Sept 1-4. We are grateful to Geetha M. for research assistance. All errors remainour own.
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| | Authors: Nooruddin, Irfan. |
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Unstable Politics:
Electoral Volatility in the Indian States
Irfan Nooruddin
∗
Pradeep Chhibber
†
August 19, 2005
‡
Abstract:
The national Indian party system, after decades of relatively stable one-party party
system dominance by the Congress party, has fragmented considerably since the 1990s. At the
state level, however, electoral volatility has not increased since the 1990s. In fact, electoral politics
in the Indian states have always been characterized by a high degree of electoral volatility, though
there remains important variation across states in the extent of volatility experienced. We attribute
this volatility to the extent of fiscal space possessed by a state government. Where a government’s
budget has fiscal space, citizens reward the incumbent parties with their votes at the next elections.
However, when fiscal space is constrained, either for exogenous reasons such as economic crises or
endogenous reasons such as excessive expenditures or low tax revenues, the ability of the incumbent
government to provide such resources is drastically reduced. Citizens therefore have little reason
to reward the incumbent government at the polls, and are ‘available’ to opposition politicians and
to alternative appeals. Vote-switching ensues and the incumbent government is voted out of the
office.
∗
Corresponding Author: Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University,
nooruddin.## email not listed ##
†
Professor,
Department
of
Political
Science,
University
of
California,
Berkeley,
## email not listed ##
‡
Paper prepared for presentation at the 2005 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Associ-
ation, Washington, DC, Sept 1-4. We are grateful to Geetha M. for research assistance. All errors remain
our own.
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