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Oil, Revenue, and Regime Stability: The Political Resource Curse Re-Examined
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Oil, Revenue, and Regime Stability:
The Political Resource Curse Reexamined
Kevin Morrison
Department of Political Science
Duke University
## email not listed ##
Comments most welcome.
Prepared for presentation at the
Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association
Washington, DC
September 2005
Abstract: Building on theories of regime change that focus on redistributional dynamics, this paper generates hypotheses regarding “non-tax” revenue and regime stability. Non-tax revenue, the importance of which has been largely ignored in theories of the public sector and regime change, is argued to include foreign aid as well as the majority of the oil revenue that accrues to governments. This non-tax revenue is hypothesized to affect redistribution in dictatorships but not in democracies, and to stabilize dictatorships but not democracies. These hypotheses are supported in cross-sectional time-series analyses of all non-OECD countries over a period of 1970-2002.
Acknowledgments: I am grateful to Dylan Fagan for excellent research assistance, to Marcela González Rivas for comments, and to Karen Remmer for comments and overall guidance. All errors are my own. I also gratefully acknowledge financial support from a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship, a James B. Duke Fellowship, and a Vertical Integration Grant from the Duke University Graduate School. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation or any entity of Duke University.
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| | Authors: Morrison, Kevin. |
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Oil, Revenue, and Regime Stability:
The Political Resource Curse Reexamined
Kevin Morrison
Department of Political Science
Duke University
## email not listed ##
Comments most welcome.
Prepared for presentation at the
Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association
Washington, DC
September 2005
Abstract: Building on theories of regime change that focus on redistributional dynamics,
this paper generates hypotheses regarding “non-tax” revenue and regime stability. Non-
tax revenue, the importance of which has been largely ignored in theories of the public
sector and regime change, is argued to include foreign aid as well as the majority of the
oil revenue that accrues to governments. This non-tax revenue is hypothesized to affect
redistribution in dictatorships but not in democracies, and to stabilize dictatorships but
not democracies. These hypotheses are supported in cross-sectional time-series analyses
of all non-OECD countries over a period of 1970-2002.
Acknowledgments: I am grateful to Dylan Fagan for excellent research assistance, to
Marcela González Rivas for comments, and to Karen Remmer for comments and overall
guidance. All errors are my own. I also gratefully acknowledge financial support from a
National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship, a James B. Duke
Fellowship, and a Vertical Integration Grant from the Duke University Graduate School.
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this paper are
those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science
Foundation or any entity of Duke University.
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