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A Cross-National Comparison of Political Business Cycles: Are They More Prevalent in Developing Countries than Developed Countries? |
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Abstract:
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Political cycle theory hypothesizes that politicians alter economic policy and economic performance to improve their chance for reelection or to enact their partisan preferences. A recent wave of studies has posited that such effects should be stronger in developing countries than OECD countries, due to higher levels of poverty, lower levels of information, and lower levels of political institutionalization. In this paper I evaluate this argument by comparing political cycles in the OECD with political cycles in Latin America, Asia, and Africa. The analysis utilizes cross-sectional time-series, including quarterly data from 1975 to 2000 in 116 countries.
The findings suggest that with respect to wide variety of economic outcomes and economic policies, political business cycles are ubiquitous in Latin America yet rare in all other regions of the world. These findings suggest that it is not poverty per se that drives political business cycles, but rather something specific to the Latin American context. The concluding section notes that this finding is consistent with the ‘macroeconomic populism’ thesis that Latin American countries exhibit greater pressures for policy-induced macroeconomic disequilibrium than other regions of the world. |
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elect (154), polit (86), 1 (70), countri (63), cycl (55), quarter (54), variabl (53), 2 (49), econom (49), tabl (40), y (40), unemploy (39), polici (39), oecd (39), effect (38), latin (37), inflat (36), busi (36), develop (34), opportunist (33), r (32), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Krieckhaus, Jonathan. "A Cross-National Comparison of Political Business Cycles: Are They More Prevalent in Developing Countries than Developed Countries?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2011-03-14 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40123_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Krieckhaus, J. , 2005-09-01 "A Cross-National Comparison of Political Business Cycles: Are They More Prevalent in Developing Countries than Developed Countries?" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-03-14 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40123_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: Political cycle theory hypothesizes that politicians alter economic policy and economic performance to improve their chance for reelection or to enact their partisan preferences. A recent wave of studies has posited that such effects should be stronger in developing countries than OECD countries, due to higher levels of poverty, lower levels of information, and lower levels of political institutionalization. In this paper I evaluate this argument by comparing political cycles in the OECD with political cycles in Latin America, Asia, and Africa. The analysis utilizes cross-sectional time-series, including quarterly data from 1975 to 2000 in 116 countries.
The findings suggest that with respect to wide variety of economic outcomes and economic policies, political business cycles are ubiquitous in Latin America yet rare in all other regions of the world. These findings suggest that it is not poverty per se that drives political business cycles, but rather something specific to the Latin American context. The concluding section notes that this finding is consistent with the ‘macroeconomic populism’ thesis that Latin American countries exhibit greater pressures for policy-induced macroeconomic disequilibrium than other regions of the world. |
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| Document Type: |
application/pdf |
| Page count: |
28 |
| Word count: |
7345 |
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| A Cross-national Comparison of Political Business Cycles: Are They More Prevalent in Developing Countries than Developed Countries? Jonathan Krieckhaus University of Missouri-Columbia KrieckhausJ@missouri.edu Prepared for delivery at the 2005 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association September 1-4 2005. Copyright by the American Political Science Association. Abstract Political cycle theory hypothesizes that politicians alter economic policy and economic performance to improve their chance for reelection or to enact their partisan preferences. A recent wave of studies has posited |
| n/a Inflation YES Gov. Expenditure YES Money Supply YES Devaluation YES YES* Unemployment (partisan) YES n/a Inflation (partisan) YES “YES” signifies statistically significant effect from executive or legislative elections. An empty cell signifies no statistically significant effect from elections. * signifies that the coefficient sign is opposite to that predicted. n/a signifies insufficient data to test the hypothesis. 26 |
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