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17
Table 1: Standard Theoretical Predictions for Political Business Cycles
Opportunistic
Partisan
Pre-
Election
Post-
Election
Pre-
Election
Post-Election
GDP
+
.
.
Sign depends on
party in power
Unemployment
—
.
.
Sign depends on
party in power
Inflation
+
+
.
Sign depends on
party in power
Expenditure
+
.
.
.
Fiscal deficits
+
.
.
.
Monetary policy
+
.
.
.
Exchange rates
.
—
.
.
Source: Most derived from Alesina, Roubini, and Cohen (1999).
“.” in a particular cell signifies no theoretical prediction for that cell.
The positive or negative in a box indicates whether elections are supposed to increase or
decrease the values of the variable listed in the first column.
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