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Securing Tenure: Authoritarian Institutions, International Conflict, and Leadership/Regime Survival
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Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of authoritarian institutions, international conflict, and
their interaction on the duration of leaders from 1919-1995. Specifically, leaders of party based authoritarian regimes should be likely to last longer in office than military based regimes as their institutions provide them with the capacity to effectively rule their states. In addition, these party based institutions should insulate party based leaders from the negative (positive) effect of losing (winning) an international conflict. Conversely, the survival of military leaders is likely to be highly influenced by the outcome of an international conflict. Our empirical analysis confirms that party based leaders have longer tenures though this effect requires them to survive in office a few years. The tenure of military leaders is positively affected by winning wars and negatively by losing wars, while for a crisis, only draws increased their survival. The duration of party leaders was not influenced by wars and only positively influenced by winning a crisis. These results suggest that leaders of military regimes are likely to view wars as all or nothing affairs, especially if their pre-war domestic support is declining. Also, conflict is likely to only lead to leadership change among military regimes.
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Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of authoritarian institutions, international conflict, and
their interaction on the duration of leaders from 1919-1995. Specifically, leaders of party based
authoritarian regimes should be likely to last longer in office than military based regimes as their
institutions provide them with the capacity to effectively rule their states. In addition, these party
based institutions should insulate party based leaders from the negative (positive) effect of losing
(winning) an international conflict. Conversely, the survival of military leaders is likely to be
highly influenced by the outcome of an international conflict. Our empirical analysis confirms
that party based leaders have longer tenures though this effect requires them to survive in office a
few years. The tenure of military leaders is positively affected by winning wars and negatively
by losing wars, while for a crisis, only draws increased their survival. The duration of party
leaders was not influenced by wars and only positively influenced by winning a crisis. These
results suggest that leaders of military regimes are likely to view wars as all or nothing affairs,
especially if their pre-war domestic support is declining. Also, conflict is likely to only lead to
leadership change among military regimes.
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