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Association: Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
Citation: URL: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40360_index.html Direct Link: HTML Code:

Goldstone, Jack., Bates, Robet., Gurr, Ted. and Marshall, Monty. "A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2011-03-14 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40360_index.html>

Goldstone, J. A., Bates, R. , Gurr, T. and Marshall, M. , 2005-09-01 "A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-03-14 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40360_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: Prior studies of civil conflict using panel studies or econometric models have provided inconsistent results. This paper presents the results of a new study, using case-control methods, to identify the correlates of political instability from data two years prior to event onset. The models we derive are surprisingly simple, use only open-source annual data, and yet are able to accurately identify states that will or will not experience political instability two years hence with over 80% accuracy in the historical data. This accuracy is consistent across several random samples drawn from the data. Using global data from 1955 to 2003, we examine a wide range of political upheavals, and demonstrate that regime type is overwhelmingly the dominant factor behind revolutions, ethnic wars, and the overthrow of democratic regimes. However, the effect of regime type is not a simple function of the degree of democracy or autocracy. Rather, certain kinds of autocracies and democracies are highly unstable, while other kinds are stable, depending on the detailed institutions and nature of political participation under those regimes.

Testing the Emergence of a New Global Regime in the Management of Ethno-Political Conflicts through the Comparative Analysis of four Cases in South East Asia

Regimes and the Politics of National Drug Control:The Case of International Narcotics Control and US Drug Policy

Modeling Dynamic Violence: Integrating Events Data Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling