A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability
Jack A. Goldstone, George Mason University
## email not listed ##
Robert H. Bates, Harvard University
## email not listed ##
Ted Robert Gurr, University of Maryland, College Park
## email not listed ##
Michael Lustik, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
michael.b.## email not listed ##
Monty G. Marshall, George Mason University
## email not listed ##
Jay Ulfelder, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
## email not listed ##
Mark Woodward, Arizona State University
Mark.## email not listed ##
Paper prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science
Association, Washington, DC, September 1-4, 2005. Copyright of the American Political
Science Association. The research described in this paper was funded by the U.S. Central
Intelligence Agency’s Directorate of Intelligence through a contract with Science Applications
International Corporation (SAIC). The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the
authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the U.S. government, the
intelligence community, or the CIA. Dr. Goldstone’s work on this paper was also supported by a
Peace and Security Writing Grant from the MacArthur Foundation.