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A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability
Unformatted Document Text:  Figure 3. Characterizing Political Regimes for Analysis of Vulnerability to Instability Com Com Com Competitiveness petitiveness petitiveness petitiveness of Political Participation of Political Participation of Political Participation of Political Participation Executive Executive Executive Executive Recruitment Recruitment Recruitment Recruitment Repressed Repressed Repressed Repressed (1) (1) (1) (1) Suppressed Suppressed Suppressed Suppressed (2) (2) (2) (2) Unregulated Unregulated Unregulated Unregulated (0) (0) (0) (0) Factional Factional Factional Factional (3) (3) (3) (3) Transitional Transitional Transitional Transitional (4) (4) (4) (4) Competitive Competitive Competitive Competitive (5) (5) (5) (5) (1) Ascription (1) Ascription (1) Ascription (1) Ascription (2) (2) (2) (2) Ascription + Ascription + Ascription + Ascription + Designation Designation Designation Designation (3) Designation (3) Designation (3) Designation (3) Designation ((((4) Self 4) Self 4) Self 4) Self----Selection Selection Selection Selection (5) Transition (5) Transition (5) Transition (5) Transition from Self from Self from Self from Self----Select Select Select Select.... (6) Ascription + (6) Ascription + (6) Ascription + (6) Ascription + Election Election Election Election (7) Transitional or (7) Transitional or (7) Transitional or (7) Transitional or Restricted Elec Restricted Elec Restricted Elec Restricted Elec.... (8) Competitive (8) Competitive (8) Competitive (8) Competitive Election Election Election Election Dark orange = full autocracy; light orange = partial autocracy; light blue = partial democracy; dark blue = full democracy. Based on Executive Recruitment (EXREC) and Competitiveness of Political Participation (PARCOMP) variables in the Polity data set.

Authors: Goldstone, Jack., Bates, Robet., Gurr, Ted. and Marshall, Monty.
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Figure 3. Characterizing Political Regimes for Analysis of Vulnerability to Instability
Com
Com
Com
Competitiveness
petitiveness
petitiveness
petitiveness of Political Participation
of Political Participation
of Political Participation
of Political Participation
Executive
Executive
Executive
Executive
Recruitment
Recruitment
Recruitment
Recruitment
Repressed
Repressed
Repressed
Repressed
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
Suppressed
Suppressed
Suppressed
Suppressed
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
Unregulated
Unregulated
Unregulated
Unregulated
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
Factional
Factional
Factional
Factional
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
Transitional
Transitional
Transitional
Transitional
(4)
(4)
(4)
(4)
Competitive
Competitive
Competitive
Competitive
(5)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(1) Ascription
(1) Ascription
(1) Ascription
(1) Ascription
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2) Ascription +
Ascription +
Ascription +
Ascription +
Designation
Designation
Designation
Designation
(3) Designation
(3) Designation
(3) Designation
(3) Designation
(
(
(
(4) Self
4) Self
4) Self
4) Self----Selection
Selection
Selection
Selection
(5) Transition
(5) Transition
(5) Transition
(5) Transition
from Self
from Self
from Self
from Self----Select
Select
Select
Select....
(6) Ascription +
(6) Ascription +
(6) Ascription +
(6) Ascription +
Election
Election
Election
Election
(7) Transitional or
(7) Transitional or
(7) Transitional or
(7) Transitional or
Restricted Elec
Restricted Elec
Restricted Elec
Restricted Elec....
(8) Competitive
(8) Competitive
(8) Competitive
(8) Competitive
Election
Election
Election
Election

Dark orange = full autocracy; light orange = partial autocracy; light blue = partial democracy; dark blue = full
democracy. Based on Executive Recruitment (EXREC) and Competitiveness of Political Participation (PARCOMP)
variables in the Polity data set.


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