Abstract: In this paper we present a new typology of authoritarian regime types, based but
also considerably improving on Geddes’ (1999) seminal contribution. We find that this new
typology helps explain the survival (and breakdown) of non-democratic regimes. Finally, we
assess the impact of authoritarian regime types on democratic development. Our results
strongly confirm the expectation that different authoritarian regimes face different
propensities to survive and to develop towards democracy. These results hold even when a
broad number of control variables are accounted for. Hence, this institutional attribute
the
nature of authoritarian regime
deserves, in our judgment, to be added to the list of essential
preconditions of democracy.
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