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Learning More about Democratization: The Persistence and Fall of Authoritarian Regimes
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Table 3. The Effect of Regime Type on Democratization (dynamic OLS with PCSE:s)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Current regime type: Military
0.167**
0.104
0.035
-0.205
One-Party
0.134**
0.124**
0.038
-0.216
Multi-Party
1.040***
0.988***
1.024***
0.767***
Multi-Party Monarchy
0.432***
0.420***
0.583***
0.633***
Military Multi-Party
0.514***
0.463***
0.411***
0.088
Military One-Party
-0.006
-0.017
0.018
-0.340*
Dominant Party
0.598***
0.582***
0.572***
0.324*
Other Regime
0.856***
0.765***
0.851***
0.666***
Democracy
1.845***
1.794***
1.853***
1.626***
Executive Turnover
0.249***
0.293***
0.264***
Parliamentary Elections
0.051*
0.028
0.028
Previous regime type: Military
0.362**
One-Party
0.284*
Multi-Party
0.184
(Multi-Party Monarchy)
—
Military Multi-Party
0.279
Military One-Party
0.578***
Dominant Party
0.335**
Other Regime
0.277
Democracy
0.299*
Adjusted R
2
.226
.232
.277
.282
Mean root squared error
.600
.598
.580
.578
χ
2
(d.f.=9)
111.1***
110.9***
137.79***
132.32***
* significant at the .10-level. ** significant at the .05-level. *** significant at the .01-level.
No. of observations = 2701; No. of countries = 145; Mean years observed per country = 18.6.
Note: Entries are unstandardized regression coefficients; significance tests are based on panel-corrected
standard errors. The dependent variable is the average FH/Polity-scores, with missing values imputed from the FH-scores. In all models, the first three one-year lags of the dependent variable is entered in order to purge the standard errors from serial autocorrelation. Monarchies are treated as the reference category for regime type. In models (3) and (4) the following control variables, lagged one year, are included: British, French, Spanish, Portuguese, and Belgian/Italian/Dutch colonial background; the proportion of Protestants, Orthodox Christians, Christians of other denomination, Buddists, Hindus, Muslims, Nonreligious and of Other denomination; ethno-linguistic and religious fractionalization; the log of the population; a composite index of socio-economic modernization; oil and minerals; trade and capital flows; democratic diffusion at the level of neighboring states, within regions, and globally; growth and inflation; demonstrations, strikes, and riots; regional dummies for Eastern Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & the Caribbean, Middle East & North Africa, Asia & the Pacific and the West.
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| | Authors: Hadenius, Axel. and Teorell, Jan. |
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Table 3. The Effect of Regime Type on Democratization (dynamic OLS with PCSE:s)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Current regime type:
Military
0.167**
0.104
0.035
-0.205
One-Party
0.134**
0.124**
0.038
-0.216
Multi-Party
1.040***
0.988***
1.024***
0.767***
Multi-Party Monarchy
0.432***
0.420***
0.583***
0.633***
Military Multi-Party
0.514***
0.463***
0.411***
0.088
Military One-Party
-0.006
-0.017
0.018
-0.340*
Dominant Party
0.598***
0.582***
0.572***
0.324*
Other Regime
0.856***
0.765***
0.851***
0.666***
Democracy
1.845***
1.794***
1.853***
1.626***
Executive Turnover
0.249***
0.293***
0.264***
Parliamentary Elections
0.051*
0.028
0.028
Previous regime type:
Military
0.362**
One-Party
0.284*
Multi-Party
0.184
(Multi-Party Monarchy)
—
Military Multi-Party
0.279
Military One-Party
0.578***
Dominant Party
0.335**
Other Regime
0.277
Democracy
0.299*
Adjusted R
2
.226
.232
.277
.282
Mean root squared error
.600
.598
.580
.578
χ
2
(d.f.=9)
111.1***
110.9***
137.79***
132.32***
* significant at the .10-level. ** significant at the .05-level. *** significant at the .01-level.
No. of observations = 2701; No. of countries = 145; Mean years observed per country = 18.6.
Note: Entries are unstandardized regression coefficients; significance tests are based on panel-corrected
standard errors. The dependent variable is the average FH/Polity-scores, with missing values imputed from the
FH-scores. In all models, the first three one-year lags of the dependent variable is entered in order to purge the
standard errors from serial autocorrelation. Monarchies are treated as the reference category for regime type. In
models (3) and (4) the following control variables, lagged one year, are included: British, French, Spanish,
Portuguese, and Belgian/Italian/Dutch colonial background; the proportion of Protestants, Orthodox Christians,
Christians of other denomination, Buddists, Hindus, Muslims, Nonreligious and of Other denomination; ethno-
linguistic and religious fractionalization; the log of the population; a composite index of socio-economic
modernization; oil and minerals; trade and capital flows; democratic diffusion at the level of neighboring states,
within regions, and globally; growth and inflation; demonstrations, strikes, and riots; regional dummies for
Eastern Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & the Caribbean, Middle East & North Africa, Asia & the Pacific
and the West.
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