Abstract: Do valence issues (valence factors) affect political parties' electoral fortunes? If
so, how great is the effect? Building upon a growing body of literature that explores the
role of valence issues, we develop a valence measure based upon content analysis of
Keesing's Record of World Events
,
that scores parties along three valence
dimensions - competence, integrity, and unity/division. We report the results of
regression analyses of the relationship between parties' valence scores and their vote
shares in nine West European democracies from 1976-1998, that suggest that the answer
to the first question posed above is yes
.
Specifically, we find evidence that events such as
political scandals and party divisions cause parties to lose votes, and that these effects are
both statistically and substantively significant. We also find evidence that governing
parties tend to receive lower (of greater negative magnitude) valence scores. These
findings have important implications for understanding the dynamics of electoral
competition, for parties' election strategies, and for political representation.
2
Convention