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Scandalous! Valence Issues and Electoral Outcomes
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- Votes of no confidence in the legislature. 4. Ambiguous events – if an event appears to be of importance, but it cannot be determined with confidence how it should be coded, then the rule of thumb is “don’t.” What was coded
Scores were totaled for each party for each category of event for every six-month
period (assuming there were events to code).
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Here, we list (not exhaustively) the more
common types of events that came under consideration for scoring: 1. Political scandals. As noted in footnote 7, by “scandal,” we refer to those events which call into question the
integrity
of party members involving bribery (either being bribed or
conducting bribery); extra-marital affairs (whatever their nature); personal misconduct (abuse of position of authority for personal gain, drug and alcohol problems, fighting, ill-considered public/private comments, breaking national or international laws). 2. Reports of “incompetence” or “competence.” We define incompetence as those events which suggest that a political party, or its members took poor decisions, or made it appear as though they did not know what they were doing i.e. they were performing their duties poorly. Examples might be a report condemning, (or offering praise in the case of competence) the government’s handling of a given situation; statements about programs or policies that prove far more costly than the governing party/parties had originally estimated (thus making them appear negligent in their management of public finances). 3. Characterisations of political parties’ election campaigns. Often, it cannot be determined from the report how well a campaign was run. However, on occasion, election campaigns may be characterised as “disorganised,” or “inspiring” etc, and in such instances, the relevant party would be attributed a score. The report would have to indicate that the feelings about the campaign were widely held, rather than appreciated or not by a particular segment of the electorate, or a narrow support group. 4. Reports of intra-party (or in the case of coalitions, inter-party) divisions. So, for example, when members of a party, or even a coalition argue with one another openly over a particular policy, or any other point of contention, the assumption is that this does not create a favourable impression, and would suggest a lack of unity to the public, especially if the officials involved are of a high rank. Such situations often take the form of a minister resigning in protest at government policy, or a squabble between ministers that the report indicates was causing internal problems for the party. This is not considered policy-related coding, as it’s the lack of unity that is being captured here. 5. Does an event have multiple stages?
Keesing’s
compiles information on events that
may have multiple stages that occur over time. This situation happens for example, when a politician is charged with breaking some kind of law, which is then reported. This may be followed by coverage of a trial, and later, by coverage of any sentence that is handed down. Furthermore, sometimes the uncovering of misdeeds by a politician leads to the
34
In the regression model, we calculate the total valence scores for each inter-electoral period, starting from
the day after the election at t-1, and ending the day before the election at t.
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- Votes of no confidence in the legislature.
4. Ambiguous events – if an event appears to be of importance, but it cannot be
determined with confidence how it should be coded, then the rule of thumb is “don’t.”
What was coded
Scores were totaled for each party for each category of event for every six-month
period (assuming there were events to code).
common types of events that came under consideration for scoring:
1. Political scandals. As noted in footnote 7, by “scandal,” we refer to those events which
call into question the
integrity
of party members involving bribery (either being bribed or
conducting bribery); extra-marital affairs (whatever their nature); personal misconduct
(abuse of position of authority for personal gain, drug and alcohol problems, fighting, ill-
considered public/private comments, breaking national or international laws).
2. Reports of “incompetence” or “competence.” We define incompetence as those events
which suggest that a political party, or its members took poor decisions, or made it appear
as though they did not know what they were doing i.e. they were performing their duties
poorly. Examples might be a report condemning, (or offering praise in the case of
competence) the government’s handling of a given situation; statements about programs
or policies that prove far more costly than the governing party/parties had originally
estimated (thus making them appear negligent in their management of public finances).
3. Characterisations of political parties’ election campaigns. Often, it cannot be
determined from the report how well a campaign was run. However, on occasion,
election campaigns may be characterised as “disorganised,” or “inspiring” etc, and in
such instances, the relevant party would be attributed a score. The report would have to
indicate that the feelings about the campaign were widely held, rather than appreciated or
not by a particular segment of the electorate, or a narrow support group.
4. Reports of intra-party (or in the case of coalitions, inter-party) divisions. So, for
example, when members of a party, or even a coalition argue with one another openly
over a particular policy, or any other point of contention, the assumption is that this does
not create a favourable impression, and would suggest a lack of unity to the public,
especially if the officials involved are of a high rank. Such situations often take the form
of a minister resigning in protest at government policy, or a squabble between ministers
that the report indicates was causing internal problems for the party. This is not
considered policy-related coding, as it’s the lack of unity that is being captured here.
5. Does an event have multiple stages?
Keesing’s
compiles information on events that
may have multiple stages that occur over time. This situation happens for example, when
a politician is charged with breaking some kind of law, which is then reported. This may
be followed by coverage of a trial, and later, by coverage of any sentence that is handed
down. Furthermore, sometimes the uncovering of misdeeds by a politician leads to the
34
In the regression model, we calculate the total valence scores for each inter-electoral period, starting from
the day after the election at t-1, and ending the day before the election at t.
29
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