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Campaign and Media Attention to an Issue Causes Learning-Based Effects, Not Priming
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Table 7: Does learning lead to issue-driven or vote-driven effects? IV estimates
Estimates of issue-driven learning effects
Estimates of vote-driven learning effects
European integration and vote choice in the UK
DV:
Labour vs. Tory approval
European integration
1996
1997
Diff.
1996
1997
Diff.
European integr.
.02
.12
.10
Labour vs. Tory
-.11
.45
.56
(1996, 1997)
(.07)
(.07)
(.10) (1996, 1997)
(.11)
(.08)
(.14)
Lagged DV
.96
.91
.89
1.01
(1995, 1996)
(.04)
(.05)
(.16)
(.18)
Two-stage least squares. N = 267 for each of the four models. Instruments from the 1994 wave.
Investing Social Security (S.S.) funds in the stock market and the 2000 U.S. presidential election
DV:
Bush vs. Gore vote
Investing S.S. funds
Pre-debate
Post-debate
Pre-debate Post-debate
Invest S.S. funds
-
-13.11
-
Bush vs. Gore
-
2.10
-
(-, Post)
-
(9.63)
-
(-, Post)
-
(.85)
-
Lagged DV
-
6.11
-
2.54
(-, Pre)
-
(1.95)
-
(.50)
Two-stage probit. N = 71 for both models. Instruments from the pre-convention wave.
Public Works and the 1976 U.S. presidential election
DV:
Carter vs. Ford approval
Public works jobs
Aug.
Sep.
Diff.
Aug.
Sep.
Diff.
Public Works
.01
.01
.00
Carter vs. Ford
.03
.52
.49
(Aug., Sep.)
(.16)
(.18)
(.24) (Aug., Sep.)
(.31)
(.32)
(.45)
Lagged DV
.83
.64
1.02
.70
(Jun., Sep.)
(.38)
(.22)
(.22)
(.19)
Two-stage least squares. N = 86 for each of the four models. Instruments from the April wave.
Defense spending and support for Reagan in the 1980 U.S. presidential election
DV:
Reagan support
Defense spending
Jan./Feb.
Sep.
Jan./Feb.
Sep.
Defense spending
-
-.07
-
Reagan / PID
-
.21
-
(-, Sep.)
-
(.17)
-
(-, Sep.)
-
(.09)
-
Lagged DV
-
1.09
-
.49
(-, Jan./Feb.)
-
(.19)
-
(.11)
Two-stage least squares. N = 138 for both models. Instruments from the Jan./Feb. wave. Note: This table presents instrumental variables estimates for the learners. It suggests that vote-driven
opinion change causes the increases in issue-vote consistency among the learners. Increases on the left-hand
side reflect issue-driven learning effects and increases on the right-hand side reflect vote-driven learning
effects. Number of respondents in parentheses. See appendix for control variables and sources.
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34
Table 7: Does learning lead to issue-driven or vote-driven effects? IV estimates
Estimates of issue-driven learning effects
Estimates of vote-driven learning effects
European integration and vote choice in the UK
DV:
Labour vs. Tory approval
European integration
1996
1997
Diff.
1996
1997
Diff.
European integr.
.02
.12
.10
Labour vs. Tory
-.11
.45
.56
(1996, 1997)
(.07)
(.07)
(.10) (1996, 1997)
(.11)
(.08)
(.14)
Lagged DV
.96
.91
.89
1.01
(1995, 1996)
(.04)
(.05)
(.16)
(.18)
Two-stage least squares. N = 267 for each of the four models. Instruments from the 1994 wave.
Investing Social Security (S.S.) funds in the stock market and the 2000 U.S. presidential election
DV:
Bush vs. Gore vote
Investing S.S. funds
Pre-debate
Post-debate
Pre-debate Post-debate
Invest S.S. funds
-
-13.11
-
Bush vs. Gore
-
2.10
-
(-, Post)
-
(9.63)
-
(-, Post)
-
(.85)
-
Lagged DV
-
6.11
-
2.54
(-, Pre)
-
(1.95)
-
(.50)
Two-stage probit. N = 71 for both models. Instruments from the pre-convention wave.
Public Works and the 1976 U.S. presidential election
DV:
Carter vs. Ford approval
Public works jobs
Aug.
Sep.
Diff.
Aug.
Sep.
Diff.
Public Works
.01
.01
.00
Carter vs. Ford
.03
.52
.49
(Aug., Sep.)
(.16)
(.18)
(.24) (Aug., Sep.)
(.31)
(.32)
(.45)
Lagged DV
.83
.64
1.02
.70
(Jun., Sep.)
(.38)
(.22)
(.22)
(.19)
Two-stage least squares. N = 86 for each of the four models. Instruments from the April wave.
Defense spending and support for Reagan in the 1980 U.S. presidential election
DV:
Reagan support
Defense spending
Jan./Feb.
Sep.
Jan./Feb.
Sep.
Defense spending
-
-.07
-
Reagan / PID
-
.21
-
(-, Sep.)
-
(.17)
-
(-, Sep.)
-
(.09)
-
Lagged DV
-
1.09
-
.49
(-, Jan./Feb.)
-
(.19)
-
(.11)
Two-stage least squares. N = 138 for both models. Instruments from the Jan./Feb. wave.
Note: This table presents instrumental variables estimates for the learners. It suggests that vote-driven
opinion change causes the increases in issue-vote consistency among the learners. Increases on the left-hand
side reflect issue-driven learning effects and increases on the right-hand side reflect vote-driven learning
effects. Number of respondents in parentheses. See appendix for control variables and sources.
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