Unexpected Events and War Termination
Zachary Shirkey
Columbia University
Ph.D. Candidate
Abstract: This study proposes that unexpected events are
correlated with, and causal of, states exiting wars. States determine
whether or not to remain at war by comparing the likely benefits of
continued belligerency with the benefits of accepting peace at the
terms then available. States will not alter their calculations of the
relative merits of war and peace unless new information is revealed
by the war. Such information is revealed by unexpected events.
When this happens belligerents shift their bargaining ranges and
often peace becomes achievable. The study also looks at the affect
of regime type on how states respond to unexpected events.
Though much has been written on war initiation, the related concept of war termination
has received far less attention. Despite this relatively perfunctory treatment, some conclusions
have been drawn about war termination. The literature has generally agreed that war termination
is related to the costs borne by the belligerents, the demands of the belligerents and the military
progress of the war.
Beyond this agreement, however, little consensus existed initially. Most
studies have found that battle deaths and economic costs are related to duration, but disagree over
their relative importance and exact relation to duration.
The focus on duration has been one of
the reasons for the lack of success. Duration studies in particular, and even war termination
studies generally tend to treat the war as the phenomenon to be examined, rather than individual
state behavior.
This focus has led to scholars to fail to focus on the decision-making processes of states.
To a large extent the failure to look at the action of individual states is not surprising as a single
1 Massoud (1996), p. 491-492.
2 Massoud (1996), p. 493.
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