state cannot end a war unilaterally.
Still, war termination is nothing more than all of the
belligerents leaving the war and being allowed to do so by their opponents.
of why a state leaves a war prior to the war’s termination is as interesting as why wars end. Thus,
war termination studies need to focus on the decision-making of individual states that are
interacting strategically with other states.
War, Peace and Revealed Information
Some scholars have in fact looked at war termination as a problem of strategic interaction and
decision-making informed by revealed information. Fox (1970) concluded that wars will continue
until there is a change in the calculations of one of the actors. Blainey (1973) argued that war is a
mechanism for revealing information. He also noted that wars were fought when the balance of
power between two rival states or coalitions was uncertain.
Additionally, Blainey noted that the
end of a war is when the distribution of power between the combatants is most clear and that this
clarification is the cause of peace.
Wittman (1979) found that war initiation and war termination
are closely linked.
He concluded wars end when an agreement acceptable to both sides is
reached. The lack of such an agreement, tacit or otherwise, causes war. Thus wars end, and
individual states leave wars, when such agreements are reached. What leads to such agreements?
The war initiation literature provides the best starting point.
Bennet and Stam (1996) concluded that the decision to continue fighting is a political
decision, just like the decision to initiate or join a war. Fearon (1995) also built upon Blainey’s
work and concluded that private information, along with the indivisibility of goods and
3 Goemans (2000), p. 5-8.
4 As Goemans (2000) points out, Soviet Russia
’s attempt to unilaterally leave the First World War failed when the
Germans continued to advance into Russia.
5 Blainey (1973). Also see Goemans (2000), p. 20; Simmel (1904).
6 Blainey (1973). A clear balance of power does not necessarily mean an equal balance of power.
7 Wittman (1979). Also see Goemans (2000), p. 11.
2
Convention