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Bargaining for Autonomy: Why States and Self-Determination Movements Fail

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Abstract:

Disputes over self-determination have become some of the most prevalent conflicts in the international system today and have shown remarkable resistance to settlement. Even among the states that have been able to reach agreements over autonomy with their self-determination movements, only 9% of these agreements are implemented, while over 60% remained contested in 2003. Why can some pairs of states and self-determination groups reach and implement agreement over autonomy while so many others are unable to do so?
I argue that the number of internal factions within states and groups make bargaining over autonomy harder (and more likely to fail) by increasing the amount of uncertainty between the two sides, decreasing their ability to remain cohesive throughout the bargaining process, and decreasing their ability to avoid internal deadlock or spoiling. I predict that agreement is most likely when there are a moderate number of factions in the state and either a low or very high number of factions within self-determination groups. I test these predictions on random sample of self-determination group/state dyads from 1960 to 2003. My analysis shows that the number of factions within states and groups are an important determinant of whether they can reach an agreement over autonomy.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

state (255), group (233), autonomi (202), faction (202), determin (120), self (119), agreement (115), self-determin (106), bargain (90), demand (77), number (74), intern (71), level (64), like (56), new (52), institut (52), polit (46), variabl (44), coordin (43), signific (42), veto (40),

Author's Keywords:

Self-determination, secession, bargaining
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Name: American Political Science Association
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Cunningham, Kathleen. "Bargaining for Autonomy: Why States and Self-Determination Movements Fail" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2011-03-14 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40699_index.html>

APA Citation:

Cunningham, K. G. , 2005-09-01 "Bargaining for Autonomy: Why States and Self-Determination Movements Fail" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <APPLICATION/PDF>. 2011-03-14 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40699_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Disputes over self-determination have become some of the most prevalent conflicts in the international system today and have shown remarkable resistance to settlement. Even among the states that have been able to reach agreements over autonomy with their self-determination movements, only 9% of these agreements are implemented, while over 60% remained contested in 2003. Why can some pairs of states and self-determination groups reach and implement agreement over autonomy while so many others are unable to do so?
I argue that the number of internal factions within states and groups make bargaining over autonomy harder (and more likely to fail) by increasing the amount of uncertainty between the two sides, decreasing their ability to remain cohesive throughout the bargaining process, and decreasing their ability to avoid internal deadlock or spoiling. I predict that agreement is most likely when there are a moderate number of factions in the state and either a low or very high number of factions within self-determination groups. I test these predictions on random sample of self-determination group/state dyads from 1960 to 2003. My analysis shows that the number of factions within states and groups are an important determinant of whether they can reach an agreement over autonomy.

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Document Type: application/pdf
Page count: 42
Word count: 12191
Text sample:
Bargaining for Autonomy: Why States and Self-Determination Movements Fail Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham University of California San Diego kgcunningham@ucsd.edu Please do not cite without permission1 1I would like to acknowledge and thank David Lake Barbara Walter Philip Roeder and Kristian Gleditsch for their comments on multiple drafts of this paper. Introduction In 1991 the Chechen republic declared independence from Russia beginning a separatist conflict that has claimed an estimated 115 000 lives to date. Between 1994 and 2003 negotiations between
: Princeton University Press. Walter Barbara F. (2002). Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press. _____________2006a. “Governments Responses to Self-determination Movements?” American 41 Journal of Political Science (Spring) _____________2006b. “Information Uncertainty and the Decision to Secede.” International Organization. 60:1 (Spring) Walter Barbara and Andrew Kydd. 2002. “Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence.” International Organization. 55:2. 42


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