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Introduction
In 1991, the Chechen republic declared independence from Russia, beginning a separatist
conflict that has claimed an estimated 115,000 lives to date. Between 1994 and 2003, negotiations
between separatist factions and the Russian state were attempted five times, culminating in two
peace accords in 1996 and 1997. Yet, after a short respite, the conflict renewed, generating over
70,000 battle deaths since the accords.
Disputes over self-determination have become some of the most common conflicts in the
international system and have shown significant resistance to settlement. Both states and self-
determination groups have shown remarkable willingness to negotiate over autonomy, but
comparatively few pairs have been able to reach new agreements on satisfactory levels of autonomy.
Even among pairs that have been able to reach agreements, only 9% of these agreements are fully
implemented, while over 60% of all signed deals remained contested in 2003.
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Moreover, in the past
two decades, over 35 self-determination disputes have degenerated into full-scale secessionist war
(such as the Chechens in Russia, East Timorese in Indonesia, and the Eritreans in Ethiopia). This
paper seeks to answer the question: Why can some pairs of states and self-determination groups
reach and implement agreement over autonomy while so many others are unable to do so?
Moreover, what factors make agreement more likely at any specific point in an ongoing dispute over
self-determination? If we can understand the factors affecting the success and failure of these
attempts to manage self-determination claims, we will significantly advance our understanding of a
major source of violent conflict today.
The intractability of these disputes may be a result of their very nature - that conflict over
political autonomy (frequently tied to territorial homeland and nationalism) is intrinsically different
that other types of contested politics. These disputes challenge the legitimacy of a state’s authority,
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Based on the CIDCM Peace and Conflict 2003 Report.
Convention