9
factions can generate uncertainty for the group – especially if the state has acted in contradictory
ways to different demands.
11
Because the state is not a unitary actor, it is unclear to self-
determination groups what the actual reversion point of the state is. During bargaining the group
and the state are both able to send mixed messages about their reversion points because they have
multiple factions with different preferences over autonomy.
State can express multiple preferences over an autonomy deal and generate uncertainty when
they engage in bargaining with the self-determination group while divisions over autonomy remain
unsettled within the government.
12
For example, Sri Lankan President Chandrika Bandaranaike
Kumaratunga launched her devolution campaign before she had gained adequate support from
within the state. The plan was later tabled because of internal dissent. Uncertainty generated by the
state over its position on autonomy will increase the chance that self-determination group factions
will misestimate what kind of deal is likely to succeed.
Fractionalization
The possibility of further fractionalization is a second important consequence that follows
from the fact that each side in self-determination bargaining is not unitary. Fractionalization is the
breaking apart of factions within the group or state. During the bargaining process, iterated
demands and offers take place overtime between the state and the self-determination group. When
states or groups make an offer or demand at some level of autonomy they do so with uncertainty
about the reversion point of the other side. The offer may satisfy a portion of the population, or
some veto factions, without gaining enough support to implement the agreement. Because the state
is often not a unitary actor, it faces some danger of disintegrating, or falling apart, during the
ongoing bargaining process.
11
See Walter (2006b) for more on how groups can gauge the preferences of the state.
12
States will typically generate less uncertainty that self-determination groups because state veto factions need to find
consensus before an agreement can be implemented and the necessity for internal consensus can sometimes prevent the
state from making multiple proposals for autonomy, though not always.
Convention