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National Leaders and International Politics
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National Leaders and International Politics
July 21, 2005
Abstract
As national leaders increasingly become the primary focus of empirical studies of interna-
tional relations, they remain underdeveloped as theoretical units of analysis. This paper seeksto correct this imbalance by developing a formal theory of national leaders in international pol-itics that better captures relevant leader characteristics like resolve and reputation and moreaccurately characterizes the strategic nature of international interactions. Adapting a generalmodel of the political business cycle to bargaining between national leaders allows us to (1)model leaders’ resolve as private information that changes with leadership turnover and (2) re-lax the assumption that leaders and states are interchangeable as units of analysis. The modelcombines for the first time leader-specific characteristics and the unique dynamics of leadershipturnover, and it accounts for a number of findings and anomalous empirical results in the leader-based literature, generates novel hypotheses, and points to new directions further research ininternational relations.
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National Leaders and International Politics
July 21, 2005
Abstract
As national leaders increasingly become the primary focus of empirical studies of interna-
tional relations, they remain underdeveloped as theoretical units of analysis. This paper seeks
to correct this imbalance by developing a formal theory of national leaders in international pol-
itics that better captures relevant leader characteristics like resolve and reputation and more
accurately characterizes the strategic nature of international interactions. Adapting a general
model of the political business cycle to bargaining between national leaders allows us to (1)
model leaders’ resolve as private information that changes with leadership turnover and (2) re-
lax the assumption that leaders and states are interchangeable as units of analysis. The model
combines for the first time leader-specific characteristics and the unique dynamics of leadership
turnover, and it accounts for a number of findings and anomalous empirical results in the leader-
based literature, generates novel hypotheses, and points to new directions further research in
international relations.
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