liberalism and realism. It describes the characteristics of different mixed worlds,
identities types of mixed worlds that are most likely and indices for measuring movement
between and among them. The chapter lays the groundwork for a theory of history that
builds on this typology and the possibilities of change it acknowledges.
Chapter Nine lays out my theory of history, and the three levels of change on
which its is based. It describes dynamics associated with each level of change, and the
ways in which they interact to bring about the kinds of cyclical and progressive
transformations I describe. I argue periods of transitions between different types of
worlds as particularly vulnerable to disorder and breakdown, offer reasons why this is so
and illustrates them with examples from western and non-western history.
Chapter Ten applies my theory to the post-Cold War world. It is a form of mixed
world, characterized by extreme lumpiness. Spirit, appetite and reason exist to some
degree at every level, and are lumpier the higher up the level of social aggregation that
we look. I utilize my map of these layers to examine interactions between them, put
existing international conflicts in context and look at the kinds of changes in balance and
imbalance that are likely to intensify or ameliorate them. I pay particular attention to
ongoing or stalled transitions from spirit to appetite, in different societies and regions,
and how their mutual interactions exacerbate tensions. I identify the kinds of
developments mostly likely to affect the degree of balance.
Chapter Eleven addresses the near future. I identify and describe the early signs
of a possible transition from appetite to spirit in the most developed parts of the world.
This change is most evident at the society level, where diverse forms of honor and
standing have already emerged, and with them identities and communities that transcend
the national state. In regional and international politics the signs of change are most
6
Convention