Smith
the transition from conflict to stable peace in Europe (and elsewhere, for that matter) has
its roots in hedging against the spread of war not necessarily in power politics, there are
broad theoretical as well as policy implications for how we view regional relations.
If we are to shed light on the larger questions surrounding regional heterogeneity,
we must begin with the broader question of what drives state behavior. As such, this
research builds on recent progress—or, more accurately, divisions—within the realist
tradition. Specifically, it draws on defensive realism to argue that states are “risk-
minimizers” and seek to avoid unnecessary war. Stability is the general goal of
governments. When conflict erupts among nearby others, states typically attempt to limit
the risk of contagion through cooperative means rather than pursue expansionist aims that
would widen the conflict, as predicted by offensive realism. Thus, they are balancing
against the spread of turmoil because conflict has uncertain outcomes not only with
regard to victory but also with the ability to govern at home. By emphasizing such
auxiliary variables as geography and elite perceptions, defensive realism also provides a
foundation to explain the clustering of states into zones of peace and turmoil. While
defensive realists often rely on spirals of hostilities based on fear and reciprocal security
measures to explain conflict, the same underlying assumptions leave the door open for
Paradoxically, however, efforts to contain or balance against
turmoil may actually isolate belligerents in ways that make them more desperate and
unstable, as the security dilemma for them becomes increasingly tense. This inevitably
feeds back into the collaborative incentives among those seeking to avoid the spread of
war. There is real potential, then, for such reciprocal developments to lead to a
2
For a discussion of regional security complexes as defined by the security dilemma and spirals of
reciprocal hostilities, see David A. Lake, “Regional Security Complexes: A Systems Approach”, in David
A. Lake and Patrick M. Morgan (eds.) , Regional Orders: Building Security in a New World (University
Park, PA: The University of Pennsylvania Press, 1997), pp. 45-67.
3
Convention