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Taking the Initiative on the Korean Peninsula

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Abstract:

Currently, the United States has been placing much emphasis on using the six party framework for negotiations aimed at disarming North Korea. But, real progress does not seem forthcoming. As the United States continues to spend huge amounts of resources in Iraq and Afghanistan, it seems the North Korea is becoming increasingly a de facto nuclear power. It has already announced to the world that is has nuclear weapons, it has only to conduct a test to confirm this. Even an unsubstantiated claims such as that provides increasing utility to the Kim Jong-il regime in the form of a limited strategic deterrent, and a way to increase its bargaining position. Meanwhile, what has the United States done to increase its own bargaining position? What can it do? How can it take the initiative in its dealings with North Korea?
To answer that question, one must think beyond the normal confines of threat analysis, and structural analyses of capabilities versus resources. One must think, “out of the box,’’ to see what factors influence the environment surrounding North Korea to determine if there are things that either give or take away North Korean leverage. By doing so, the analyst can then recommend steps to establish a security environment that is more conducive to the United States’ interests. The scenario planning framework provides a useful methodology that forces users to think in such a manner.

Most Common Document Word Stems:

korea (164), north (154), china (150), state (116), unit (88), south (84), us (80), korean (80), kim (69), secur (61), iraq (59), nuclear (57), jong (51), 1 (51), 2005 (49), econom (47), increas (46), il (45), continu (45), scenario (43), militari (43),

Author's Keywords:

North Korea, nuclear proliferation, nuclear crisis, China, Asian Security
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Name: American Political Science Association
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http://www.apsanet.org


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MLA Citation:

Pak, Jin. and Kim, Michael. "Taking the Initiative on the Korean Peninsula" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2011-03-14 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40766_index.html>

APA Citation:

Pak, J. and Kim, M. , 2005-09-01 "Taking the Initiative on the Korean Peninsula" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <PDF>. 2011-03-14 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40766_index.html

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Currently, the United States has been placing much emphasis on using the six party framework for negotiations aimed at disarming North Korea. But, real progress does not seem forthcoming. As the United States continues to spend huge amounts of resources in Iraq and Afghanistan, it seems the North Korea is becoming increasingly a de facto nuclear power. It has already announced to the world that is has nuclear weapons, it has only to conduct a test to confirm this. Even an unsubstantiated claims such as that provides increasing utility to the Kim Jong-il regime in the form of a limited strategic deterrent, and a way to increase its bargaining position. Meanwhile, what has the United States done to increase its own bargaining position? What can it do? How can it take the initiative in its dealings with North Korea?
To answer that question, one must think beyond the normal confines of threat analysis, and structural analyses of capabilities versus resources. One must think, “out of the box,’’ to see what factors influence the environment surrounding North Korea to determine if there are things that either give or take away North Korean leverage. By doing so, the analyst can then recommend steps to establish a security environment that is more conducive to the United States’ interests. The scenario planning framework provides a useful methodology that forces users to think in such a manner.

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Associated Document Available American Political Science Association
Associated Document Available Political Research Online

Document Type: PDF
Page count: 37
Word count: 12463
Text sample:
HOW CAN THE UNITED STATES TAKE THE INITIATIVE IN THE CURRENT NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR CRISIS? By MAJ Jin H. Pak United States Army and 2LT Michael Kim United States Army Prepared for delivery at the 2005 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association September 1 – September 4 2005. Copyright by the American Political Science Association The opinions and analysis in this paper are the authors’ own and do not reflect any position of the United States Military
Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (7 January 2004) available from http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/topics/sco/t57970.htm; internet; accessed 15 Jan 05. 102 Bush Richard. “United States-China Relations Looking Forward.” FICS-Brookings Conference on Taiwan- China-US Relations After the Taiwan Election. Brookings Institution (23 May 2004) 2. 103 Bush Richard. “United States-China Relations Looking Forward.” FICS-Brookings Conference on Taiwan- China-US Relations After the Taiwan Election. Brookings Institution (23 May 2004) 2. 104 Susan L. Shirk “China’s Multilateral Diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific ” U.S.-China


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