Prosperity” policy: (1) settlement of problems through dialogue; (2) trust and reciprocity; (3) Koreas’
initiative-based international cooperation; and (4) public participation and supra-partisan cooperation.
This evolution of South Korean policy toward the North is driving by two driving factors: the
changing South Korean threat perception of the North, and the planned US troop withdrawal from the
Korean peninsula.
Figure 5 – Major Trend #3
South Korea’s
Engagement Policy
with North Korea
South Korea’s Threat
Perception of North
Korea
South Korea Repeals National
Security Law, offers more
carrots to North Korea,
tensions with United States
increase
-
-
US Force Posture in
Asia
South Korea Cooperates with
the US during Six Party Talks,
does not repeal the National
Security law.
Positive Extreme
Negative Extreme
(A2)
(B1)
Certainty
Scale
1 - Extreme
Certainty
2 - Moderate
Certainty
3 - Minimal
Certainty
Significance
Scale
A - Extreme
Significance
B - Moderate
Significance
South Korea continues to
develop its military, 12,500 US
troops withdraw, more US
military aid, South Korea
becomes less willing to
antagonize the North.
-
US indefinitely delays full
withdrawal of the 12,500
troops, South Korea offers
greater support to US
proposals during negotiations
with North Korea.
19
Convention