Currently, the United States has been placing much emphasis on using the six party framework
for negotiations aimed at disarming North Korea. But, real progress does not seem forthcoming. As the
United States continues to spend huge amounts of resources in Iraq and Afghanistan, it seems that North
Korea is increasingly becoming a de facto nuclear power. It has already announced to the world that it
has nuclear weapons, it has only to conduct a test to confirm this. Even an unsubstantiated claim such as
this provides increasing utility to the Kim Jong-il regime in the form of a limited strategic deterrent, and a
way to increase its bargaining position. Meanwhile, what has the United States done to increase its own
bargaining position? What can it do? How can it take the initiative in its dealings with North Korea?
To answer that question, one must think beyond the normal confines of threat analysis and
structural analyses of capabilities versus resources. One must think, “out of the box,’’ to see what factors
influence the environment surrounding North Korea to determine if there are things that either give or
take away North Korean leverage. By doing so, the analyst can then recommend steps to establish a
security environment that is more conducive to the United States’ interests. The scenario planning
framework provides a useful methodology that forces users to think in such a manner.
Scenario Planning Methodology
The challenge for strategic planners is to help decision makers understand what the future security
environment might look like.
This is a challenging task because it makes individuals rethink their
assumptions and perceive the future in a different perspective. All of us, whether we admit it or not,
come pre-equipped with a “mental map.”
We possess certain biases and modes of thinking. But in order
to approach a problem objectively, thereby letting “the facts get in the way of our opinion,” we have to
seriously question our own assumptions, prejudgments, and even what we thought was a clear
understanding of the world.
Even more importantly, scenario planning allows us to make choices today with an understanding
of how they might turn out in the future.
It is a tool for “ordering one’s perceptions about alternative
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Convention