Scenario I: “Concert of Great Powers”
This scenario is marked by two distinct characteristics: US success in Iraq and China’s continuing
economic growth. The United States have helped the Iraqis establish a stable democratic government
which aligns with US interests. A self sufficient Iraqi security force is established allowing the United
States to pull resources out of the Middle East. The United States decreases their troop level in Iraq and
Afghanistan from 100,000+ to 30,000. Success in Iraq has stifled Al Qaeda and its affiliate terrorist
groups, diminishing attacks on US targets both domestic and abroad. Conflict in the Middle East is
avoided as diplomatic negotiations with Iran are successful. Anti-American sentiment decreases as the
success of Iraq bolsters US legitimacy throughout the world. Reconstruction of Iraq’s economic, political
Success in Iraq
“Concert of Great
Powers”
China’s Economy
Collapses
China’s Economy
Grows
Failure in Iraq
- PRC economy collapses
another Taiwan crisis
DPRK nuclear test
US air strike
DPRK/China attacks
- PRC economy grows
Trilateral PRC-US-DPRK
UN Security Council
involvement
DPRK deals
PRC economy collapses
WMD attack on US
another Taiwan crisis
DPRK invasion
DPRK occupies ROK
- PRC economy grows
US loses influence in talks
DPRK deals, but keeps
nukes
US must live with a nuclear
DPRK
“Desperate Times Call
for Desperate Measures”
“Nightmare in East Asia”
“A Freeze Again, but
this time with Nukes”
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Convention