9
Even when government succeeds in capturing logisticians and other support network
members, they face dramatically lesser consequences than operators. Of the 29 financiers and
logisticians removed from the global Salafi jihad between January 2001 and December 2003,
only 3 were killed. A particularly telling example is the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) cell broken up in
Singapore in late 2001. The cell provided fund raising services to JI and was making logistical
arrangements for an al Qaeda attack in Singapore. Of the 30-plus people arrested, the 13 engaged
in direct logistical support each received two years in prison. Those engaged in fund raising
activities were released but not permitted to leave the country.
28
This dramatic difference in risks
leads to divergent preferences in terrorist organizations.
Individuals join terrorist organizations when the utility of doing so is at least as good as
that provided by their next best option.
29
Utility is composed of two components. First,
individuals get utility out of doing what they believe is right, in this case out of the impact of
their actions in furthering the group’s goals.
30
Second, individuals get utility out of monetary
compensation. Each individual places a weight on these two components such that the sum of the
weights is one. The utility of an action is the probability it yields an impact, I, times the weight
placed on impact plus the probability it yields wages, W, times the weight placed on wages.
31
We
can then describe the population of potential members by the distribution of weights in the
population. At the extremes are individuals who are purely motivated by impact, suicide
bombers perhaps, and those motivated purely by money.
Within this framework, consider a hierarchical organization where individuals come up
through the ranks, starting out in subordinate roles and moving into management roles as local
leaders, financial facilitators, or logisticians.
32
Throughout their careers, these individuals will
have opportunities to volunteer for risky missions.
33
Those most likely to do so will be those who
Convention