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Geography, Strategic Ambition, and the Duration of Civil Conflict
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Geography, Strategic Ambition, and
the Duration of Civil Conflict
Halvard Buhaug, Scott Gates, and Päivi Lujala
Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO &
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
August 2005
Abstract:
Both the control of territory possessing natural resources used to finance
armed conflict and the distances an army must travel to project force affect how a civil war is fought and who will prevail. In this paper, a model based on a contest success function designed to explicitly account for distances is employed to model the ability to project force and sustain conflict. The strategic ambitions of the rebel group will determine whether the conflict is focused on territorial secession or conquest of the government. These goals, in turn, affect where the war is fought, how it is fought, and the likelihood of one of the parties succeeding militarily. Using both Cox regression and parametric survival analyses, specific propositions regarding the duration of conflicts derived from the formal model are analyzed. Using a precisely dated armed civil conflict duration data (Gates & Strand, 2004), which is based on the Uppsala Armed Conflict dataset (Eriksson & Wallensteen, 2004), and using data regarding the location of conflict (Buhaug & Gates, 2002) and natural resources (Buhaug & Lujala, 2005) we are able to assess the role geography has on the duration of armed civil conflict, especially in terms of the location of the conflict zone and location of lootable natural resources. We are also able to differentiate armed civil conflicts according to the strategic ambitions of the rebels.
Paper prepared for presentation at the 2005 APSA Annual meeting, September 1-4, 2005, Washington, D.C. This project has in part been funded by the Research Council of Norway, which has provided the core grant for the establishment and operation of the Centre for the Study of Civil War at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO). This paper is also part of the “Polarization and Conflict” Project (CIT-2-CT-2005-506084) funded by the European Commission-DG Research Sixth Framework Programme. The paper reflects only the authors’ views and the Commission is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. We thank these organizations for their support. We also thank Aysegul Aydin for her valuable comments and assistance.
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| | Authors: Buhaug, Halvard., Gates, Scott. and Lujala, Päivi. |
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Geography, Strategic Ambition, and
the Duration of Civil Conflict
Halvard Buhaug, Scott Gates, and Päivi Lujala
Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO &
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
August 2005
Abstract:
Both the control of territory possessing natural resources used to finance
armed conflict and the distances an army must travel to project force affect how a
civil war is fought and who will prevail. In this paper, a model based on a contest
success function designed to explicitly account for distances is employed to model the
ability to project force and sustain conflict. The strategic ambitions of the rebel group
will determine whether the conflict is focused on territorial secession or conquest of
the government. These goals, in turn, affect where the war is fought, how it is fought,
and the likelihood of one of the parties succeeding militarily. Using both Cox
regression and parametric survival analyses, specific propositions regarding the
duration of conflicts derived from the formal model are analyzed. Using a precisely
dated armed civil conflict duration data (Gates & Strand, 2004), which is based on the
Uppsala Armed Conflict dataset (Eriksson & Wallensteen, 2004), and using data
regarding the location of conflict (Buhaug & Gates, 2002) and natural resources
(Buhaug & Lujala, 2005) we are able to assess the role geography has on the duration
of armed civil conflict, especially in terms of the location of the conflict zone and
location of lootable natural resources. We are also able to differentiate armed civil
conflicts according to the strategic ambitions of the rebels.
Paper prepared for presentation at the 2005 APSA Annual meeting, September 1-4, 2005,
Washington, D.C.
This project has in part been funded by the Research Council of Norway, which has provided
the core grant for the establishment and operation of the Centre for the Study of Civil War at
the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO). This paper is also part of the
“Polarization and Conflict” Project (CIT-2-CT-2005-506084) funded by the European
Commission-DG Research Sixth Framework Programme. The paper reflects only the authors’
views and the Commission is not liable for any use that may be made of the information
contained therein. We thank these organizations for their support. We also thank Aysegul
Aydin for her valuable comments and assistance.
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