development (e.g. high levels of life expectancy and low levels of infant mortality). We
expect that higher levels of development will be associated with higher levels of
renewable fresh water resources, as there are more resources available to preserve and
protect the existing levels of renewable resources. There is a caveat, however, as higher
levels of development might also lead to higher levels of economic use (and abuse) of the
available fresh water resources. Modern lifestyle is a serious tax on natural resources and
it might aggravate rather than alleviate environmental scarcity. Moreover, we expect
higher levels of development to have a dumping effect on the likelihood of an internal
war. The data for GDP per capita is provided by the World Bank development indicators.
H11: Higher levels of development reduce water scarcity and the likelihood of
conflict
In Model 2, we include urbanization (% of total population that lives in urban
centers). Levels of urbanization are associated with industrialization, which leads to
higher levels of overall development but at the same increases environmental
degradation, especially around urban centers. Urbanization is a globally widespread
phenomenon in many developing countries, where huge metropolises of more than 10
million inhabitants have been created the last 20 years (e.g. New Delhi, Mexico City, Rio
de Janeiro, and Lagos). Urbanization puts a strain on water resources as increasing
amounts of water need to be directed towards urban centers to satisfy the rising demand
of urban dwellers. The pressures to increase water supply to urban centers might increase
internal conflicts under the right conditions, especially with regions that control and
provide the resource. The conflict between Los Angeles, farmers in Imperial Valley, and
Colorado state over the use of Colorado river presents an interesting analogy on how
urbanization can increase conflict by straining environmental capacity. In this context
urbanization captures the way that a scarce resource (in this case water) is distributed
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Convention