manage environmental stress, changing demographics, and human health problems is a
catalyst for increasing or reducing the probability of conflict. As in the quote above,
capable governments, like the Roman Empire (at certain times), may be more able to deal
with underlying problems like water scarcity and degradation, and thus avert discontent
and civil strife, than incapable ones. The consolidation of democratic or autocratic
political regimes may prove to be an important aspect interacting with capacity.
Based on these hypothesized causal mechanisms linking water resource scarcity
to conflict, we extend our discussion to the management of conflict. This article explores
how exogenous factors related to state capacity might help states escape cycles of
conflict. This article is part of a larger general study, the focus of which is to identify the
links between the underlying causes of conflict (natural resources, environmental
degradation, and distribution of resources) and the management of conflict by focusing
on the capacity of institutions to respond to both. Understanding this link between
conflict causes and management is crucial for appropriate institutional design and conflict
resolution.
The next section provides a review of the environmental security-natural
resources and conflict literature.
Literature Review
According to the 2002 World Resources Institute Guide to World Resources, 41%
of the world’s population is living in water stressed river basins. Other indicators of the
stress of aquatic ecosystems include: 65% of global agricultural lands showing soil
degradation, 20% of normal global river flow extracted for human use (Postel 2000 notes
that only approximately 31% of runoff is even accessible for human use), and 60% of
major river basins strongly or moderately fragmented by dams (WRI 2002, 5). Postel
3
Convention