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Wars Within States as Wars Between States
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ARS
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ITHIN
S
TATES
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ARS
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ETWEEN
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TATES
Douglas Lemke
Department of Political Science
Pennsylvania State University
205 Pond Lab
University Park, Pennsylvania 16802
## email not listed ##
814/863-0816
A
BSTRACT
: Scholars of international conflict focus on efforts to understand and predict
international wars. However, it is unclear that any substantial differences exist between international wars and the militarized struggles that often occur within states as they undergo state making. In fact, it seems reasonably easy to argue that internal wars of state making and international wars of conquest are directly comparable in many respects. If true, then theories about international wars should help us anticipate internal wars of state making as well. To test this conjecture I analyze the history of conflict and peace among autonomous political units in the South American Rio de la Plata region during the first half of the 19
th
Century. I employ
power transition theory as my analytical guide, and discover that it is a useful empirical tool for predicting when these South American autonomous political units waged war with each other. Larger implications for connecting theories of war and of state making, and thus of expanding the empirical domain of international conflict studies, are also considered.
Prepared for delivery at the 2005 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. Washington, D.C. Special thanks to Gabriel Uriarte and to Jacek Kugler for their assistance in collecting much of the war data analyzed herein, and to Scott Bennett, Paul Hensel, Glenn Palmer, and Bill Reed for technical advice and other tips along the way.
Paper Title in Program: “Armed Political Action Groups and Autonomous Political Units: Irregular Actors in International Relations.”
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W
ARS
W
ITHIN
S
TATES
AS
W
ARS
B
ETWEEN
S
TATES
Douglas Lemke
Department of Political Science
Pennsylvania State University
205 Pond Lab
University Park, Pennsylvania 16802
## email not listed ##
814/863-0816
A
BSTRACT
: Scholars of international conflict focus on efforts to understand and predict
international wars. However, it is unclear that any substantial differences exist between
international wars and the militarized struggles that often occur within states as they undergo
state making. In fact, it seems reasonably easy to argue that internal wars of state making and
international wars of conquest are directly comparable in many respects. If true, then theories
about international wars should help us anticipate internal wars of state making as well. To test
this conjecture I analyze the history of conflict and peace among autonomous political units in
the South American Rio de la Plata region during the first half of the 19
th
Century. I employ
power transition theory as my analytical guide, and discover that it is a useful empirical tool for
predicting when these South American autonomous political units waged war with each other.
Larger implications for connecting theories of war and of state making, and thus of expanding
the empirical domain of international conflict studies, are also considered.
Prepared for delivery at the 2005 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.
Washington, D.C. Special thanks to Gabriel Uriarte and to Jacek Kugler for their assistance in
collecting much of the war data analyzed herein, and to Scott Bennett, Paul Hensel, Glenn
Palmer, and Bill Reed for technical advice and other tips along the way.
Paper Title in Program: “Armed Political Action Groups and Autonomous Political Units:
Irregular Actors in International Relations.”
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