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Campaign Finance Laws and Candidacy Decisions in State Legislative Elections
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| | Unformatted Document Text:
Table 2
Logistic Regression Analyses of Factors Affecting the Probability of a Major Party Challenge
To an Incumbent in Either a Primary or General Election in 25 States (1994-98)
Probability
1
2
3
4
5
Change
District-Level
Factors
Past Electoral Competitiveness
.036***
.035***
.035***
.034***
.034***
+.283
Partisan Homogeneity
.001
.002
.002
.002
.002
+.006
Social Diversity
-.405
.093
.340
-.472
-.285
-.005
Population
-.002
+
.001
.001
.004**
.004**
+.074
Urban
.053
.061
.043
.088
.075
+.017
System-Level
Conditions
Legislative Professionalism
2.673***
3.108***
2.771***
2.063***
1.851***
+.096
Chamber Competition
.006*
.003
.006
+
.003
.005
+.024
Election Context
1996
.328***
.333***
.290***
.332***
.301***
+.066
1998
-.201**
-.191**
-.253***
-.201**
-.244***
-.055
Filing Requirements
-----
-.200***
-.242***
-.286***
-.312***
-.142
Campaign
Finance Laws
Limitation Index
-----
-----
.061**
-----
.043*
+.048
Public Funding
-----
-----
-----
.764***
.732***
+.147
Constant
-.861**
-.900**
-1.207***
-.670*
-.892**
N =
6,120
6,120
6,120
6,120
6,120
Base
Pseudo R
2
=
.122
.124
.126
.131
.132
Probability
Correctly Predicted =
68%
68%
68%
64%
68%
.661
+ p < .10; * p < .05; ** p <.01; *** p < .001
29
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| | Authors: Hogan, Robert. and Hamm, Keith. |
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Table 2
Logistic Regression Analyses of Factors Affecting the Probability of a Major Party Challenge
To an Incumbent in Either a Primary or General Election in 25 States (1994-98)
Probability
1
2
3
4
5
Change
District-Level
Factors
Past Electoral Competitiveness
.036***
.035***
.035***
.034***
.034***
+.283
Partisan Homogeneity
.001
.002
.002
.002
.002
+.006
Social Diversity
-.405
.093
.340
-.472
-.285
-.005
Population
-.002
+
.001
.001
.004**
.004**
+.074
Urban
.053
.061
.043
.088
.075
+.017
System-Level
Conditions
Legislative Professionalism
2.673***
3.108***
2.771***
2.063***
1.851***
+.096
Chamber Competition
.006*
.003
.006
+
.003
.005
+.024
Election Context
1996
.328***
.333***
.290***
.332***
.301***
+.066
1998
-.201**
-.191**
-.253***
-.201**
-.244***
-.055
Filing Requirements
-----
-.200***
-.242***
-.286***
-.312***
-.142
Campaign
Finance Laws
Limitation Index
-----
-----
.061**
-----
.043*
+.048
Public Funding
-----
-----
-----
.764***
.732***
+.147
Constant
-.861**
-.900**
-1.207***
-.670*
-.892**
N =
6,120
6,120
6,120
6,120
6,120
Base
Pseudo R
2
=
.122
.124
.126
.131
.132
Probability
Correctly Predicted =
68%
68%
68%
64%
68%
.661
+ p < .10; * p < .05; ** p <.01; *** p < .001
29
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