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Mandate Elections Before Polling
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Mandate Elections Before Polling
∗
James E. Monogan III
3 September 2005
Abstract
Prior research shows that, after mandate elections, many members of Congress re-
act by adjusting their voting patterns temporarily, with the effects quickly decaying.Whether these reactions come from globally rational members of Congress who quicklysense the truth or from boundedly rational members of Congress who rely on informa-tion from the press is unclear. I test between these rival theories both at the aggregateand individual level, finding that fewer members enter a mandate state in the modernera than before the golden age of television. While additional research should be con-ducted to verify these results, I tentatively conclude that boundedly rational membersof Congress are less capable of recognizing the public’s true opinion with a smallerinformation flow.
∗
Paper prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
September 2005, Washington, DC. I thank James A. Stimson for extensive programming help, along withLawrence J. Grossback and David A. M. Peterson for sharing software.
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| | Authors: Monogan III, James E.. |
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Mandate Elections Before Polling
∗
James E. Monogan III
3 September 2005
Abstract
Prior research shows that, after mandate elections, many members of Congress re-
act by adjusting their voting patterns temporarily, with the effects quickly decaying.
Whether these reactions come from globally rational members of Congress who quickly
sense the truth or from boundedly rational members of Congress who rely on informa-
tion from the press is unclear. I test between these rival theories both at the aggregate
and individual level, finding that fewer members enter a mandate state in the modern
era than before the golden age of television. While additional research should be con-
ducted to verify these results, I tentatively conclude that boundedly rational members
of Congress are less capable of recognizing the public’s true opinion with a smaller
information flow.
∗
Paper prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
September 2005, Washington, DC. I thank James A. Stimson for extensive programming help, along with
Lawrence J. Grossback and David A. M. Peterson for sharing software.
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