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Term Limits and Partisan Swings |
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Abstract:
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Despite the attention that has been devoted to term limits by legislative scholars, there has been little effort to understand, or even speculate on, how the imposition of these limits may affect electoral outcomes in state legislatures. The purpose of this paper is to examine how term limits have affected election results to determine whether states with term limits are more responsive to broader political and economic trends than those without limits. The paper provides a statistical analysis of election results for 43 state legislatures during the past two presidential elections. In essence, the paper addresses one of the main themes of the 2005 conference in that it explores whether term limits allow elections to express more accurately shifts in public preferences. The paper finds evidence that elections in term-limited legislatures were more responsive to the presidential vote and changes in the economy in the 2000 election but not in 2004. |
Most Common Document Word Stems:
elect (144), state (135), limit (97), term (96), democrat (70), presidenti (59), seat (59), parti (57), legisl (56), variabl (52), vote (50), turnout (42), result (40), 2000 (37), one (31), gain (29), chang (29), 2004 (26), polit (25), legislatur (24), surg (24), |
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Association:
Name: American Political Science Association
URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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Citation:
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MLA Citation:
| Clucas, Richard. "Term Limits and Partisan Swings" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2011-03-14 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40917_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Clucas, R. A. , 2005-09-01 "Term Limits and Partisan Swings" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <PDF>. 2011-03-14 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40917_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Review Method: Peer Reviewed
Abstract: Despite the attention that has been devoted to term limits by legislative scholars, there has been little effort to understand, or even speculate on, how the imposition of these limits may affect electoral outcomes in state legislatures. The purpose of this paper is to examine how term limits have affected election results to determine whether states with term limits are more responsive to broader political and economic trends than those without limits. The paper provides a statistical analysis of election results for 43 state legislatures during the past two presidential elections. In essence, the paper addresses one of the main themes of the 2005 conference in that it explores whether term limits allow elections to express more accurately shifts in public preferences. The paper finds evidence that elections in term-limited legislatures were more responsive to the presidential vote and changes in the economy in the 2000 election but not in 2004. |
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PDF |
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16 |
| Word count: |
5919 |
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| TERM LIMITS AND PARTISAN SWINGS Richard A. Clucas Portland State University Prepared for delivery at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association Washington D.C. September 1-4 2005. 1 Abstract Despite the attention that has been devoted to term limits by legislative scholars there has been little effort to understand or even speculate on how the imposition of these limits may affect electoral outcomes in state legislatures. The purpose of this paper is to examine how term limits |
| (.116) (.117) Dem Vote in TL States .307*** .730 -.026 -.048 (.100) (.077) Turnout in TL States .303* .471 .094 .099 (.164) (.167) Constant -15.027** -25.396*** (6.995) (8.240) R2 .29 .45 Adj.R 2 .17 .36 N 43 43 ***p <.01 **p <.05 *p <.10 16 |
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