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War Votes and War Voters: A Further Examination of the Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War |
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Abstract:
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There is a popular assumption that congressional voting against acts of war will lead to electoral retaliation. In The Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War (1995), Regens, Gaddie and Lockerbie attempted to shed light on this “cost of war” assumption. They also sought to test the durability of the “rally-round-the-flag” phenomenon and determine how the two hypotheses interacted.
They reviewed the elections following the Mexican American War, World War I and the Persian Gulf War to determine the effect of a “no” vote. The authors found that only the electoral results following the declaration of war in World War I was significantly related to congressional votes against the war. Neither the Mexican American War nor the Persian Gulf War yielded statistically significant results. There results were mixed. “The evidence presented here offers some support for the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon as well as the costs-of-war model and its impact on elections” (Regens et. al 1995, 180). Their study questions the strength of the war vote assumption, but calls for more investigation.
This paper will further the research done by Regens, Gaddie and Lockerbie in two ways. It will reexamine the Persian Gulf War to determine if the election following the war was unique. The authors determined “we do not find support for either the rally hypothesis or the cost-of-war hypothesis in the 1992 elections” (Regens et. al. 1995, 180). Strengthening statistical analysis on the Gulf War will help determine if the Persian Gulf War was different and why that was the case.
Additionally, the original analysis will be updated, by considering the electoral effects of the War on Terror. It is important to examine more recent war resolutions; to consider individual vote choice by voters and to asses the effect of a more politicized war environment. Were the Gulf War results unique or were they indicative of a new trend? What effect the War on Terror had in the 2002 mid-term elections and the recent presidential elections will add to the contemporary literature on the cost-of-war and rally hypotheses.
Roll call votes on the “war” declarations will be reviewed and compared to election results. Additional variables will be controlled for, these include: effects of redistricting, rate of retirement and overall incumbent win/loss ratio. Proximity of war vote to general election will also be considered.
Regens, James, Ronald Keith Gaddie, Brad Lockerbie. March 1995. “The Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 39 No. 1:168-182 |
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war (195), n (179), vote (164), incumb (121), democrat (108), congression (57), iraq (55), republican (51), district (50), rep (38), dem (38), voter (37), support (37), elect (35), use (34), presidenti (28), oppos (27), forc (27), 2004 (27), elector (26), terror (25), |
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Name: American Political Science Association URL: http://www.apsanet.org
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MLA Citation:
| Cruise, Rebecca. "War Votes and War Voters: A Further Examination of the Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 <Not Available>. 2011-03-14 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40984_index.html> |
APA Citation:
| Cruise, R. J. , 2005-09-01 "War Votes and War Voters: A Further Examination of the Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC Online <PDF>. 2011-03-14 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p40984_index.html |
Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript Review Method: Peer Reviewed Abstract: There is a popular assumption that congressional voting against acts of war will lead to electoral retaliation. In The Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War (1995), Regens, Gaddie and Lockerbie attempted to shed light on this “cost of war” assumption. They also sought to test the durability of the “rally-round-the-flag” phenomenon and determine how the two hypotheses interacted.
They reviewed the elections following the Mexican American War, World War I and the Persian Gulf War to determine the effect of a “no” vote. The authors found that only the electoral results following the declaration of war in World War I was significantly related to congressional votes against the war. Neither the Mexican American War nor the Persian Gulf War yielded statistically significant results. There results were mixed. “The evidence presented here offers some support for the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon as well as the costs-of-war model and its impact on elections” (Regens et. al 1995, 180). Their study questions the strength of the war vote assumption, but calls for more investigation.
This paper will further the research done by Regens, Gaddie and Lockerbie in two ways. It will reexamine the Persian Gulf War to determine if the election following the war was unique. The authors determined “we do not find support for either the rally hypothesis or the cost-of-war hypothesis in the 1992 elections” (Regens et. al. 1995, 180). Strengthening statistical analysis on the Gulf War will help determine if the Persian Gulf War was different and why that was the case.
Additionally, the original analysis will be updated, by considering the electoral effects of the War on Terror. It is important to examine more recent war resolutions; to consider individual vote choice by voters and to asses the effect of a more politicized war environment. Were the Gulf War results unique or were they indicative of a new trend? What effect the War on Terror had in the 2002 mid-term elections and the recent presidential elections will add to the contemporary literature on the cost-of-war and rally hypotheses.
Roll call votes on the “war” declarations will be reviewed and compared to election results. Additional variables will be controlled for, these include: effects of redistricting, rate of retirement and overall incumbent win/loss ratio. Proximity of war vote to general election will also be considered.
Regens, James, Ronald Keith Gaddie, Brad Lockerbie. March 1995. “The Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 39 No. 1:168-182 |
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| Page count: |
29 |
| Word count: |
6849 |
| Text sample: |
| War Votes and War Voters: A Research Note to Further Examine the Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War Rebecca JoAnn Cruise Ronald Keith Gaddie The University of Oklahoma Prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association Washington DC September 1-4 2005. Abstract A concern for legislators is the potential consequence of opposing popular policy. War and foreign policy crises typically boost presidential popularity and legislators are assumed to hesitate to oppose war for |
| Do You Consider Yourself… Liberal Moderate Conservative Republican Incumbent Dem 80.4% N=935 48.4% N=1384 12.9% N=263 Rep 17.9% N=208 49.4% N=1424 86% N=1757 Democratic Incumbent Voted for War Dem 86.1% N=198 71.3% N=303 29.2%N=81 Rep 13% N=30 27.3% N=116 70% N=194 Democratic Incumbent Voted Against War Dem 93% N= 666 76.6% N=849 35% N=180 Rep 5% N=36 22.5% N=249 63.9% N=329 29 |
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