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War Votes and War Voters: A Further Examination of the Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War
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War Votes and War Voters: A Research Note to Further Examine the Electoral Consequences
of Voting to Declare War
Rebecca JoAnn Cruise
Ronald Keith Gaddie
The University of Oklahoma
Prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, September 1-4 2005.
Abstract
A concern for legislators is the potential consequence of opposing popular policy. War and foreign policy crises typically boost presidential popularity, and legislators are assumed to hesitate to oppose war for fear of electoral reprisal. Previous research shows that, through World War I, legislators who opposed war paid an electoral price, but that legislators who opposed the 1991 Gulf War paid no electoral penalty in the subsequent election. In this paper, we test for electoral costs to congressmen who opposed the authorization of the use of force in Iraq. A district-level analysis reveals that Democrats who opposed the Iraq resolution ran behind other incumbent Democrats in 2004. Exit poll data indicate that voter attitudes on the War on Terror and the War in Iraq closely follow partisanship and the presidential vote in structuring the vote for incumbents.
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| | Authors: Cruise, Rebecca. |
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War Votes and War Voters: A Research Note to Further Examine the Electoral Consequences
of Voting to Declare War
Rebecca JoAnn Cruise
Ronald Keith Gaddie
The University of Oklahoma
Prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association,
Washington, DC, September 1-4 2005.
Abstract
A concern for legislators is the potential consequence of opposing popular policy. War and
foreign policy crises typically boost presidential popularity, and legislators are assumed to
hesitate to oppose war for fear of electoral reprisal. Previous research shows that, through
World War I, legislators who opposed war paid an electoral price, but that legislators who
opposed the 1991 Gulf War paid no electoral penalty in the subsequent election. In this paper,
we test for electoral costs to congressmen who opposed the authorization of the use of force in
Iraq. A district-level analysis reveals that Democrats who opposed the Iraq resolution ran
behind other incumbent Democrats in 2004. Exit poll data indicate that voter attitudes on the
War on Terror and the War in Iraq closely follow partisanship and the presidential vote in
structuring the vote for incumbents.
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