War Votes and War Voters: A Research Note to Further Examine the Electoral Consequences
of Voting to Declare War
War occupies an unusual position in the study of elections and public opinion. Presidents can
expect a short-term increase in their popularity as a consequence of foreign policy crises.
Legislators do not generally criticize the use of force by presidents in times of crisis in a so
called “rally ‘round the flag” effect. Presidential calls for authorization to use force and make
war are typically ratified by Congress as a consequence of the rally. Voters generally support
and approve of the use of force initially, especially when there is an imminent crisis. However,
support for war and the use of force erode over time.
The electoral environment is currently defined in no small part by foreign policy. A
form of war has become the centerpiece policy of the Bush administration, and the political
environment has, since 2002, been defined by division over the scope and conduct of military
operations overseas. The initial call for the use of force made by the Bush administration –
Afghanistan – was effectively unopposed in Congress, as only one dissenting vote was cast.
The second effort to authorize the use of force immediately preceding the 2002 congressional
election was divisive, as a majority of Democrats opposed authorizing action while all but six
Republicans supported the request for use of force by the executive. The subsequent political
environment was defined by a debate over both the need to use force and the status of the Iraq
conflict relative to the larger “War on Terror.” War became one of many polarizing issues in
an era of partisan politics.
This paper follows on previous research regarding the electoral consequences to
legislators for supporting or opposing war in the legislative elections of 2002 and 2004. It is
our expectation that, given the tendency toward safer legislative districts and the emergence of
stronger ties of presidential and congressional voting, that the opposition of war had no
detrimental effect on Democratic legislators. In 2002, the case for war with Iraq was
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