Table 3: Time-Frame for Presidential Vote Choice
Indeed, there were relatively fewer first-time values voters (9.3%) than any other
issue voter. Table 4 shows that values voters were most likely to be already engaged
participants in politics; “moral values” had the least motivating effect on turning out
those who had never voted before.
Which ONE issue mattered most in deciding
how you voted for president?
Is this the first time you have ever
voted?
Yes (%)
Yes (%)
Taxes
16.7
83.3
Education
20.5
79.5
Iraq
10.4
89.6
Terrorism
9.5
90.5
Economy/Jobs
12.4
87.6
Moral values
9.3
90.7
Health-care
10.5
89.5
Source: National Election Pool
Table 4: Incidence of First-Time Voters across Issue Voters
The third and principal reason why we cannot view the values vote as a statistical
phantom is because of its skewed partisan composition. E
ven if the poll response were an
artifact of a poorly designed or defined question, the breakdown by presidential vote-
choice was so partisanly polarized that political and media elites were at least right in
recognizing the political salience (if not the tipping effect) of “moral values” in the last
election.
The partisan divide among values and non-values voters can be observed in a
number of ways. As Table 5 shows, 59.3 percent of values voters identified as
Republican and 15.7 percent identified as Democrat; 80.2 percent voted for Bush and
18.1 percent voted for Kerry; and 57 percent of values voters identified themselves as
“conservative” and 11.2 percent of these voters identified themselves as “liberal.” That is
to say, values voters were almost four times more likely to identify as Republican than
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Convention