A gender gap, defined as the absolute difference between the proportion of women and
the proportion of men voting for the winning candidate, was clearly evident in the 2004
presidential election. The nationwide exit poll conducted by Edison Media Research and
Mitofsky International showed that 48 percent of women compared with 55 percent of men had
voted for George W. Bush, resulting in a gender gap of seven percentage points.
The 2004 gender gap was neither the largest (11 percentage points in voting for Bill
Clinton in 1996) nor the smallest (four percentage points in voting for Bill Clinton in 1992) for
presidential elections since 1980. In fact, gender differences in voting in 2004 appeared very
average in magnitude; the mean gender gap for all presidential elections from 1980 to 2000 was
7.7 percentage points (Center for American Women and Politics 2004; Center for American
Women and Politics 2005).
Nevertheless, Kerry’s failure to do better among women was one of the explanations
commonly offered for his defeat in the 2004 presidential race. Although Kerry won a majority,
51 percent, of women’s votes, he fell short of the 54 percent of women’s votes that Al Gore won
in 2000. Bush did notably better with women in 2004, winning 48 percent of their votes
compared to only 43 percent in 2000 (Center for American Women and Politics 2004).
In an article in the Washington Post on the day after the election, reporter Dana Milbank
echoed the conclusion drawn by many others throughout the country who attributed Bush’s
better showing with women in 2004 to security moms, observing, “Bush narrowed his deficit
among female voters to five percentage points from 11 in 2000–evidence that ‘security moms’
doubted Kerry’s ability to fight terrorism” (Milbank, November 4, 2004). Similarly, refuting
Convention