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Understanding the Changing Dynamics of the Gender Gap in American Presidential Elections, 1952-2004
Unformatted Document Text:  Research on the 1992 elections found a greater gender gap among those under the age of thirty than the overall gender gap (Bendyna & Lake 1994; Cook & Wilcox 1995). Here we find women in this age group more likely than men to vote for the Democratic candidate. Seltzer et. al. (1997) argued that even though age does not strongly influence the gender gap, their research showed similar results. In addition, they found the reverse for those over the age of 60 with men more likely to associate with the Democratic Party than women. Due to findings like these, several studies on the gender gap include age as one of the control variables (Mueller 1991; Conover & Sapiro 1993; Chaney et. al. 1998). In this study we compare the voting behavior of women in three different age groups (18- 29, 30-59, & 60 and above) and then compare the voting decisions made by women in these groups with the voting decisions of men in the same age groups. Our expectations resemble the above mentioned findings. First, younger women are more likely to vote for the Democratic Party candidate than younger men contributing to the gender gap. Second, women who fall into the middle age group are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate just like the men in this age group. Finally, women in the older age group are more likely than the men in this age group to vote for the Republican candidate again playing a role in the gender gap. In addition to age, another demographic variable that tends to be controlled for in the gender gap literature measures where the voter lives. Several studies (Mueller 1991; Seltzer et. al. 1997; Chaney et. al. 1998) use region for this variable with the expectation that regional factors such as culture, history, religion and the economy can influence partisanship and voting decisions. As a result, voting behavior is expected to vary among the different regions. Supporting this idea, Barbara Norrander (1999) found that the shift in party preferences over the years has been more substantial in the South and North than in the West resulting in a growth in 8

Authors: O'Regan, Valerie R., Stambough, Stephen J. and Thorson, Gregory R.
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Research on the 1992 elections found a greater gender gap among those under the age of thirty
than the overall gender gap (Bendyna & Lake 1994; Cook & Wilcox 1995). Here we find
women in this age group more likely than men to vote for the Democratic candidate. Seltzer et.
al. (1997) argued that even though age does not strongly influence the gender gap, their research
showed similar results. In addition, they found the reverse for those over the age of 60 with men
more likely to associate with the Democratic Party than women. Due to findings like these,
several studies on the gender gap include age as one of the control variables (Mueller 1991;
Conover & Sapiro 1993; Chaney et. al. 1998).
In this study we compare the voting behavior of women in three different age groups (18-
29, 30-59, & 60 and above) and then compare the voting decisions made by women in these
groups with the voting decisions of men in the same age groups. Our expectations resemble the
above mentioned findings. First, younger women are more likely to vote for the Democratic
Party candidate than younger men contributing to the gender gap. Second, women who fall into
the middle age group are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate just like the men in
this age group. Finally, women in the older age group are more likely than the men in this age
group to vote for the Republican candidate again playing a role in the gender gap.
In addition to age, another demographic variable that tends to be controlled for in the
gender gap literature measures where the voter lives. Several studies (Mueller 1991; Seltzer et.
al. 1997; Chaney et. al. 1998) use region for this variable with the expectation that regional
factors such as culture, history, religion and the economy can influence partisanship and voting
decisions. As a result, voting behavior is expected to vary among the different regions.
Supporting this idea, Barbara Norrander (1999) found that the shift in party preferences over the
years has been more substantial in the South and North than in the West resulting in a growth in
8


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