18
In the basic model, women, younger voters (under 30), respondents identifying as
something other than White (non-Hispanic), and those who have attended graduate
school were more likely to have voted for Kerry than Bush. Once again, a small Catholic
effect is evident with the odds of a self-identifying Catholics voting for Kerry having
been slightly higher than those of non-Catholics. The addition of party identification and
the disaggregation of Catholics by their frequency of Mass attendance provide partial
support for the results of the NES models. Once again the addition of partisanship
dramatically increases the amount of variance explained and cases correctly predicted.
Among Catholics, those attending Mass once or twice a year – perhaps only at Christmas,
Easter, and/or Ash Wednesday – were more likely to vote for Kerry than non-Catholics.
The basic models for the 2000 vote indicate the results of the Kerry model are not
exceptional in regards to Catholics. In fact, the odds that Catholics voted for Gore instead
of Bush in 2000 are slightly larger than that for Catholics choosing Kerry instead of Bush
in 2004. After controlling for partisanship and disaggregating Catholics by Mass
attendance even greater differences emerge. Catholics who rarely or never attended Mass
in 2000 were more supportive of Gore than they were of Kerry in 2004.
The NES data includes too few Catholic interviews to appropriately explore the
relation of specific attitudes and ideology to the votes of Catholics specifically.
However, the exit poll data do include a sufficient number of interviews to do this
research. Although post-election media reports highlighted the importance of “moral
values” in Bush’s election, as Table 7 indicates, these were not the top issue of concern
for Catholic voters.
[Insert Table 7]
Convention