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Camelot Only Comes but Once? John F. Kerry and the Catholic Vote
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Table 8. Media Exit Poll Catholic Vote for Kerry
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Constant
1.389**
.099*** .001***
Gender (Female)
1.477
.871
.996
Age Group
30 to 44
.590***
.755
.605
45 to 59
.722*
.774
.676
60 or older
.705*
.634
.536*
Race/Ethnicity
African American/Black
10.341***
7.647*** 11.303***
Hispanic/Latino
2.247***
1.711**
1.351
Other (Non-White)
1.143
1.635
.911
Education
Some college
.763
.751
.939
Bachelor’s degree
.928
.931
1.395
Graduate school
.981
.958
1.234
Mass Attendance
Regularly/Every week
.610*
1.063
1.224
Often/Monthly
.732
.899
1.087
Seldom/Few times a year
.889
1.167
1.288
Region
Northeast
.664*
.575*
.841
Midwest
.845
.769
.880
South
.287***
.304*** .304***
R lives state with bishop making a denial statement
1.021
.952
.896
Party Identification
Democrat
--
52.851*** 59.985***
Independent/Apolitical
--
8.282*** 8.227***
Political Ideology
Liberal
--
14.460*** 10.119***
Moderate
--
3.219*** 2.455***
Most Important Issue (Moral values excluded)
Terrorism
--
--
.815
Economy/Jobs
--
--
14.763***
Iraq
--
--
31.394***
Health care
--
--
5.592***
Taxes
--
--
26.083***
Education
--
--
49.232***
Number of cases (unweighted)
1,648
1,610
1,610
Model Chi-Square
171.3***
1057.9*** 1293.8***
Nagelkerke R-Square
.132
.643
.738
Percent correctly predicted
61.5%
83.3%
87.4%
*p<.05, **p<.01, ***p<.001. Table reports logistic regression exp(b) coefficients. Sample includes Catholics only. Dependent variable takes the value of “1” if the respondent reports vote for Democrat and the value of “0” if the respondent reports a Republican vote. Excluded reference categories: Male, Age 18 to 29, Non-Hispanic White, High school or less education, Never attend Mass, Residency in the West, No bishop denial statement state, Republican Party identification, Conservative ideology, Moral values the most important issue. Data are weighted.
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| | Authors: Gray, Mark., Perl, Paul. and Bendyna, Mary. |
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35
Table 8. Media Exit Poll Catholic Vote for Kerry
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Constant
1.389**
.099*** .001***
Gender (Female)
1.477
.871
.996
Age Group
30 to 44
.590***
.755
.605
45 to 59
.722*
.774
.676
60 or older
.705*
.634
.536*
Race/Ethnicity
African American/Black
10.341***
7.647*** 11.303***
Hispanic/Latino
2.247***
1.711**
1.351
Other (Non-White)
1.143
1.635
.911
Education
Some college
.763
.751
.939
Bachelor’s degree
.928
.931
1.395
Graduate school
.981
.958
1.234
Mass Attendance
Regularly/Every week
.610*
1.063
1.224
Often/Monthly
.732
.899
1.087
Seldom/Few times a year
.889
1.167
1.288
Region
Northeast
.664*
.575*
.841
Midwest
.845
.769
.880
South
.287***
.304*** .304***
R lives state with bishop making a denial statement
1.021
.952
.896
Party Identification
Democrat
--
52.851*** 59.985***
Independent/Apolitical
--
8.282*** 8.227***
Political Ideology
Liberal
--
14.460*** 10.119***
Moderate
--
3.219*** 2.455***
Most Important Issue (Moral values excluded)
Terrorism
--
--
.815
Economy/Jobs
--
--
14.763***
Iraq
--
--
31.394***
Health care
--
--
5.592***
Taxes
--
--
26.083***
Education
--
--
49.232***
Number of cases (unweighted)
1,648
1,610
1,610
Model Chi-Square
171.3***
1057.9*** 1293.8***
Nagelkerke R-Square
.132
.643
.738
Percent correctly predicted
61.5%
83.3%
87.4%
*p<.05, **p<.01, ***p<.001. Table reports logistic regression exp(b) coefficients. Sample
includes Catholics only. Dependent variable takes the value of “1” if the respondent reports vote
for Democrat and the value of “0” if the respondent reports a Republican vote. Excluded
reference categories: Male, Age 18 to 29, Non-Hispanic White, High school or less education,
Never attend Mass, Residency in the West, No bishop denial statement state, Republican Party
identification, Conservative ideology, Moral values the most important issue. Data are weighted.
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