2
Recent research into voter turnout has repeatedly demonstrated the importance of generational
replacement in turnout change (Miller and Shanks 1996, Lyons and Alexander 2000; Putnam
2000, 2002; Blais et al. 2004; Franklin 2004). Turnout change, it appears, is led by the youngest
members of the electorate who, as they age, become set in their ways at a level to which their
turnout returns after any perturbation. So variations in turnout from election to election are
limited by the inertia of established cohorts, providing a baseline expectation for the level of
future turnout around which actual turnout varies under the influence of short-term forces
(Franklin 2004). The baseline can shift over time if new cohorts of voters differ in a systematic
way from their predecessor cohorts, creating long-term change (Putnam 2000; Franklin 2004).
These ideas can be illustrated using data from U.S. national election studies conducted
since 1964. Figure 1 shows the evolution of turnout in U.S. presidential elections by cohort from
1964 to 2004, using three-cohort moving averages to locate the position of each group of
Election Year
1964
2004
27
71
Turnout of cohorts, percent
38
49
60
(Three-cohort moving avarages)
1956-64
cohorts 1960-68
cohorts
1964-72
cohorts
1968-76
cohorts
1972-80
cohorts 1976-84
cohorts
1980-88
cohorts
1992-00
cohorts
1984-92
cohorts
1988-96
cohorts
1996-04
cohorts
1972
1980
1988
1996
Figure 1 Evolution of U.S. turnout by Cohort, 1964-2004, in three-cohort moving averages
Source: American National Election Studies 1960-2004. Data weighted to observed turnout at each election.
Old ceiling?
New ceiling?
.
Convention