8
efforts will be rewarded by an electoral victory for their party or candidate. The more the out-
come is seen to be a foregone conclusion for one side or another, the less the incentive there is
for either side to do this. Though there is ambivalence in the literature about the effectiveness of
'get out the vote' campaigns (see Shaw 1999 for a review), I already noted that Hillygus (2005)
has found empirically that such campaigns can have considerable effects on individuals who
were not previously planning to vote.
9
So variations in the competitiveness of elections stimulate variations in the prevalence of
expressive engagement, in turn leading to variations in electoral participation by young adults. A
highly competitive election stimulates high levels of expressive engagement, bringing more first
time voters to the polls. Moreover, a series of highly competitive elections will, by motivating
these same young adults to vote a second and third time, socialize them into the habit of voting.
Similarly, a series of less competitive elections, by lowering the motivation for expressive
engagement, will lead to lower turnout. So one of the things that will influence turnout trends
will be trends in electoral competitiveness, exactly as has been found in aggregate-level research.
On the basis of this logic, statistical models of electoral participation at the individual
level will look rather different than has been customary. The conventional model incorporates
independent variables concerned with resources, mobilization, and features of the campaign; and
generally takes the form shown in equation 1:
Voting = ß
0
+ ß
1
X
1
+ ß
2
X
2
+ ß
3
X
3
+ €
(Equation 1)
where the X
1
variables measure the individual’s resources of various kinds, the X
2
variables
measure factors that facilitate or motivate the individual’s mobilization, and the X
3
variables
measure aspects of the campaign, such as the extent to which it excites the potential voter’s
interest. In a model that takes account of expressive engagement, things are more complicated.
For one thing such models will need an additional set of independent variables to measure
aspects of the character of elections. For another it will be necessary to allow for different effects
on members of new cohorts than on members of established cohorts. This is not because the
9
Among those planning to vote at the start of the campaign she finds that conventional approaches by
parties and candidates are effective in reinforcing the intentions of would-be voters.
Convention